Author Archives: Ted Kavadas

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 16, 2021:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 20, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2021. The headline is “With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since 1983, Inflation Lurks.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. has produced many more Star Wars films since 1983, but growth has never approached that level—until this year, if economists are right. Those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal boosted their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 6.4%, measured as the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. If realized, that would be one of the few times in 70 years that the economy has grown so fast.

also:

Growth of 6% or better was more common before the 1980s, when underlying growth was higher and usually came right after recessions with the help of loose monetary and fiscal policy. The contraction in output in the first half of last year was far more severe than any previous recession, so a strong recovery was partly inevitable. Indeed, GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of last year.

The scale of federal stimulus is greater than in the previous recoveries, at nearly $6 trillion, or more than one-quarter of annual GDP. Mr. Reagan’s combination of tax cuts and military spending was spread out over a longer period, said Mr. Sinai. “It makes it hard for a forecaster because I’ve not seen anything like this, ever,” he said.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 12.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 11.62%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 7. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.41%

full-year 2022:  3.21%

full-year 2023:  2.39%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.83%

December 2022: 4.10%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.93%

December 2022: 2.22%

December 2023: 2.50%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 12, 2021, titled “The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March 19, 2021:

from page 25:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2021 & 2022

from page 26:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 22, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2021. The headline is “Latest Stimulus Package Could Jolt U.S. Growth, Revive Inflation in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The nearly $1.9 trillion relief package heading for House passage Wednesday is projected to help propel the U.S. economy to its fastest annual growth in nearly four decades, reduce poverty and revive inflation.

The legislation—following trillions of dollars in federal aid last year and arriving amid rising Covid-19 vaccination rates—prompted economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in recent days to boost their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 5.95%, measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the same period this year. That was up from their 4.87% projection last month and would be the U.S. economy’s fastest since a 7.9% burst in 1983.

The analysts also lifted their forecasts for inflation and job growth from last month’s survey. The new poll found that they expected consumer prices would rise 2.48% by December from a year earlier and projected that employers will add an average 514,000 jobs a month over the next four quarters.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.62%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 17.51%.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.95%

full-year 2022:  3.17%

full-year 2023:  2.44%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.97%

December 2022: 4.27%

December 2023: 3.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.78%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.43%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 10, 2021, titled “The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of February 12, 2021:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 expected earnings

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 17, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2021. The headline is “Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Economists on average expected gross domestic product to expand nearly 4.9% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, according to the business and academic economists surveyed in February, an improvement from their 4.3% forecast in January. They cited the distribution of Covid-19 vaccinations and the prospect of additional fiscal relief from Washington for the brightening outlook.

also:

“The economy is already picking up some growth momentum in the first quarter,” said Brian Bethune, professor of economics at Boston College. “The large $1.9 trillion stimulus package will provide significant insurance against a relapse into recession,” he said, referring to President Biden’s proposal.

More than half of the respondents said the amount of fiscal aid the economy needs to recover from the coronavirus shock was less than $1 trillion, while only one said that more than $2 trillion was required.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.51%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 79%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 21.2%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted February 5 – February 9. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  4.87%

full-year 2022:  3.07%

full-year 2023:  2.46%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 5.28%

December 2022: 4.46%

December 2023: 4.10%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.48%

December 2022: 1.85%

December 2023: 2.18%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 12, 2021, titled “The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January 15, 2021:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 21, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will grow 4.3% this year, as the country exits the grip of the coronavirus pandemic, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Economists raised their growth prediction for 2021 U.S. gross domestic product in the January survey, saying vaccinations and the prospect of additional financial relief from Washington for individuals and businesses brightened economic prospects. The latest 2021 growth prediction, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, was a sharp increase from the 3.7% growth forecast for 2021 in last month’s survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 21.2%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 23.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 8 – January 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.53%

full-year 2021:  4.26%

full-year 2022:  3.03%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 5.34%

December 2022: 4.59%

December 2023: 4.27%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.44%

December 2022: 1.77%

December 2023: 2.10%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 14, 2021, titled “The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 18, 2020:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 22, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy’s bounceback will depend on how quickly vaccines are distributed, according to forecasters. More than half of those surveyed said a speedy deployment of vaccines, once approved in the U.S., represents the biggest potential boost for the economy over the next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 23.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 26.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted December 4 – December 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.74%

full-year 2021:  3.69%

full-year 2022:  2.93%

full-year 2023:  2.38%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.71%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.84%

December 2023: 4.40%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .90%

December 2021: 1.28%

December 2022: 1.62%

December 2023: 1.99%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 11, 2020, titled “The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.