The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2022. The headline is “As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49% in July, on average, up from 44% a month ago and just 18% in January.
Some 46% of economists said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates excessively and cause unnecessary economic weakness. Slightly fewer, 42%, said they anticipated the Fed increasing rates about the right amount to balance inflation and growth. Around 12.3% thought it would raise rates too little.
As noted above, and also seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 49%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%. For reference, the average response in June’s survey [the previously published survey] was 44%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted July 8 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2022: .71%
full-year 2023: 1.14%
full-year 2024: 2.05%
December 2022: 3.76%
December 2023: 4.28%
December 2024: 4.35%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 3.32%
December 2023: 3.22%
December 2024: 3.17%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 17, 2022, titled “The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.