The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 15, 2023. The headline is “Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
In the latest WSJ survey, economists expected gross domestic product to have grown at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, a sharp uptick from 0.2% in the previous survey. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously. They expect the economy to grow 0.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 0.3% contraction expected in the prior survey, followed by a 0.1% contraction in the fourth. Forecasters said GDP would increase 1% in 2023, measured from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, double the previous forecast of 0.5%.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted July 7 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2023: .97%
full-year 2024: 1.26%
full-year 2025: 2.08%
December 2023: 4.06%
December 2024: 4.46%
December 2025: 4.21%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2023: 3.67%
December 2024: 3.40%
December 2025: 3.36%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 16, 2023, titled “The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.