Author Archives: Ted Kavadas

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January 13, 2023:

from page 30:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS trends

from page 31:

S&P500 EPS 2013-2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 17, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

While economists don’t think a recession can be avoided, they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived, in line with other recent surveys.

On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and contract 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth.

Economists expect GDP to stagnate this year, posting growth of just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. In the WSJ survey in October, economists forecast 0.4% GDP growth in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 6 – January 10. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .97%

full-year 2023:  .17%

full-year 2024:  1.86%

full-year 2025:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.65%

December 2024: 4.63%

December 2025: 4.23%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.52%

December 2024: 3.33%

December 2025: 3.36%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 15, 2023, titled “The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 15, 2022:

from page 30:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 31:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 19, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of November 11, 2022:

from page 28:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2022 & 2023

from page 29:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 16, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of October 14, 2022:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2022 & 2023

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 14, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.

also:

Economists’ average forecasts suggest that they expect a recession to be relatively short-lived. Of the economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year, their average expectation for the length of a recession was eight months. The average postwar recession lasted 10.2 months.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 49%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 7 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .22%

full-year 2023:  .44%

full-year 2024:  1.82%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.70%

December 2023: 4.71%

December 2024: 4.64%

December 2025: 4.31%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 3.84%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.19%

December 2025: 3.20%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 16, 2022, titled “The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 9, 2022:

from page 25:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2022 & 2023

from page 26:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 15, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August 5, 2022:

from page 28:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

2022 + 2023 S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 29:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 18, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July 15, 2022:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS trends

from page 28:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 18, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2022. The headline is “As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49% in July, on average, up from 44% a month ago and just 18% in January.

Some 46% of economists said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates excessively and cause unnecessary economic weakness. Slightly fewer, 42%, said they anticipated the Fed increasing rates about the right amount to balance inflation and growth. Around 12.3% thought it would raise rates too little.

As noted above, and also seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 49%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey [the previously published survey] was 44%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 8 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .71%

full-year 2023:  1.14%

full-year 2024:  2.05%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.76%

December 2023: 4.28%

December 2024: 4.35%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 3.32%

December 2023: 3.22%

December 2024: 3.17%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 17, 2022, titled “The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.