Author Archives: Ted Kavadas

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 17, 2021. The headline is “Supply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Uncomfortably high inflation will grip the U.S. economy well into 2022, as constrained supply chains keep upward pressure on prices and, increasingly, curb output, according to economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal.

The economists’ inflation projections are up dramatically from July, while short-term growth outlooks are lower.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 15.94%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the last survey published] was 11.56%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 67 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 8 – October 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.22%

full-year 2022:  3.59%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

full-year 2024:  2.23%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.63%

December 2022: 3.91%

December 2023: 3.64%

December 2024: 3.66%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.69%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.45%

December 2024: 2.66%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 19, 2021, titled “The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of October 15, 2021:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings 2021 & 2022

from page 25:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 19, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 17, 2021:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 Earnings Forecasts 2021 & 2022

from page 25:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 20, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August 13, 2021:

from page 25:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates

from page 26:

S&P500 EPS Years 2011 - 2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 17, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July 16, 2021:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings forecasts

from page 25:

S&P500 EPS

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 20, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2021. The headline is “Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.56%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the last survey published] was 12.53%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.89%

full-year 2022:  3.24%

full-year 2023:  2.30%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.89%

December 2022: 4.12%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.79%

December 2022: 2.11%

December 2023: 2.41%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 11, 2021, titled “The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June 17, 2021:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS 2021 & 2022

from page 28:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 20, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May 14, 2021:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2021 & 2022

from page 25:

S&P500 annual EPS 2011 - 2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 14, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 16, 2021:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 20, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2021. The headline is “With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since 1983, Inflation Lurks.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. has produced many more Star Wars films since 1983, but growth has never approached that level—until this year, if economists are right. Those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal boosted their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 6.4%, measured as the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. If realized, that would be one of the few times in 70 years that the economy has grown so fast.

also:

Growth of 6% or better was more common before the 1980s, when underlying growth was higher and usually came right after recessions with the help of loose monetary and fiscal policy. The contraction in output in the first half of last year was far more severe than any previous recession, so a strong recovery was partly inevitable. Indeed, GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of last year.

The scale of federal stimulus is greater than in the previous recoveries, at nearly $6 trillion, or more than one-quarter of annual GDP. Mr. Reagan’s combination of tax cuts and military spending was spread out over a longer period, said Mr. Sinai. “It makes it hard for a forecaster because I’ve not seen anything like this, ever,” he said.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 12.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 11.62%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 7. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.41%

full-year 2022:  3.21%

full-year 2023:  2.39%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.83%

December 2022: 4.10%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.93%

December 2022: 2.22%

December 2023: 2.50%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 12, 2021, titled “The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.