Author Archives: Ted Kavadas

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May 13, 2022:

from page 28:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 Earnings Forecasts 2022 & 2023

from page 29:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 17, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 14, 2022:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts for 2022 & 2023

from page 28:

S&P500 annual EPS 2012 - 2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 18, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 10, 2022. The headline is “Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.

also:

Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 28%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 17.74%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 1 – April 5. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  2.57%

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  2.06%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.44%

December 2023: 3.56%

December 2024: 3.74%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.73%

December 2023: 2.85%

December 2024: 2.93%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 11, 2022, titled “The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March 11, 2022:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 28:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 16, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of February 11, 2022:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 18, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January 13, 2022:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 25:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 19, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

The combination of higher inflation, supply-chain constraints and the fast-spreading Omicron variant caused economists to trim their forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, from 3.6% in October. Last year, output rose 5.2%, economists estimate.

also:

On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.74%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the last survey published] was 15.94%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 7 – January 11. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.20%

full-year 2022:  3.30%

full-year 2023:  2.42%

full-year 2024:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.52%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.53%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.20%

December 2023: 2.54%

December 2024: 2.84%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 16, 2022, titled “The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 17, 2021:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS 2021 & 2022

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2011 - 2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 21, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of November 12, 2021:

from page 25:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings 2021 & 2022

from page 26:

S&P500 Earnings 2011-2022

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 16, 2021, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 17, 2021. The headline is “Supply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Uncomfortably high inflation will grip the U.S. economy well into 2022, as constrained supply chains keep upward pressure on prices and, increasingly, curb output, according to economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal.

The economists’ inflation projections are up dramatically from July, while short-term growth outlooks are lower.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 15.94%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the last survey published] was 11.56%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 67 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 8 – October 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.22%

full-year 2022:  3.59%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

full-year 2024:  2.23%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.63%

December 2022: 3.91%

December 2023: 3.64%

December 2024: 3.66%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.69%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.45%

December 2024: 2.66%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 19, 2021, titled “The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.