The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 16, 2023. The headline is “Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
The economy is proving more resilient and inflation more stubborn than economists expected a few months ago, and as a result the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted April 7 – April 11. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2023: .45%
full-year 2024: 1.61%
full-year 2025: 2.20%
December 2023: 4.30%
December 2024: 4.51%
December 2025: 4.25%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2023: 3.42%
December 2024: 3.29%
December 2025: 3.28%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 16, 2023, titled “The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.