Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of October 16, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2020 & 2021

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2020

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 21, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Economists in the April survey expected that on average, payrolls would recover to their February 2020 level in just over two years, by the third quarter of 2022.

In this month’s survey, just over a third of economists, 34.7%, broadly stuck with that timeline and said payrolls would recover in 2022. A larger share, 42.9%, now see the labor market recovering in 2023, and another 12.2% expect it will take even longer—with 2% expecting it will take until 2030.

also:

Most economists in this month’s survey said the outlook for a recovery in gross domestic product is notably faster than for jobs. More than half of economists, 57.4%, expected that in 2021, economic output will return to the seasonally and inflation-adjusted level of its prior peak in the final quarter of 2019. A further 18.5% of economists expected GDP to recover to its previous peak by the first quarter of 2022.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 31.68%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 36.93%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 2 – October 6. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -3.58%

full-year 2021:  3.70%

full-year 2022:  3.02%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 7.76%

December 2021: 6.21%

December 2022: 5.17%

December 2023: 4.65%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.10%

December 2022: 1.50%

December 2023: 1.85%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 8, 2020, titled “The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 11, 2020:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 forecast EPS

from page 23:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 17, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The projected rebound for the third quarter would recoup about half of the output lost in the first half of the year. To return to the previous peak recorded in the final quarter of last year, the economy would need to grow at a roughly 24% rate again in the fourth quarter of this year. Economists see that as unlikely: Their forecast for fourth-quarter growth is for a 4.9% annual rate, suggesting the recovery will be protracted.

The average forecast called for GDP to shrink 4.2% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 5.3% contraction predicted in last month’s survey.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy would still be on track to contract in 2020 by the most since contemporary records began in 1948, as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2008—during the financial crisis—GDP contracted just 2.8% from the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 36.93%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 37.04%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted September 4 – September 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.19%

full-year 2021:  4.00%

full-year 2022:  3.13%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.05%

December 2021: 6.34%

December 2022: 5.20%

December 2023: 4.69%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .77%

December 2021: 1.13%

December 2022: 1.54%

December 2023: 1.89%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 10, 2020, titled “The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August 7, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings trends

from page 24:

S&P500 annual earnings 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 20, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists surveyed this month saw the economy rebounding 18.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, following the 32.9% drop in the second quarter. That was higher than their July forecast of a 15.2% third-quarter bounceback. But economists trimmed their forecasts for the following four quarters, suggesting they see a long recovery ahead.

Roughly 70% percent of economists surveyed said the recovery would look like a “Nike swoosh,” characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a gradual recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 37.04%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 54.41%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.33%

full-year 2021:  4.39%

full-year 2022:  3.37%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.96%

December 2021: 6.63%

December 2022: 5.47%

December 2023: 4.88%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.17%

December 2022: 1.58%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 14, 2020, titled “The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July 17, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2020-2021

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 24, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.64%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.07%

December 2021: 6.75%

December 2022: 5.61%

December 2023: 4.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .86%

December 2021: 1.25%

December 2022: 1.68%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 10, 2020, titled “The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June 12, 2020:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

trends of S&P500 earnings forecasts

from page 23:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 18, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found that more than two-thirds of economists, 68.4%, expect the economic recovery to start in the third quarter. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it already began in the current, second quarter. The U.S. entered a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined this week.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 73.54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 94.6%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 5 – June 9, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.87%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.09%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.64%

December 2021: 6.95%

December 2022: 5.69%

December 2023: 4.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .97%

December 2021: 1.38%

December 2022: 1.80%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 12, 2020, titled “The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.