The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
The combination of higher inflation, supply-chain constraints and the fast-spreading Omicron variant caused economists to trim their forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, from 3.6% in October. Last year, output rose 5.2%, economists estimate.
On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.74%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the last survey published] was 15.94%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted January 7 – January 11. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2021: 5.20%
full-year 2022: 3.30%
full-year 2023: 2.42%
full-year 2024: 2.22%
December 2022: 3.52%
December 2023: 3.45%
December 2024: 3.53%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 2.20%
December 2023: 2.54%
December 2024: 2.84%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 16, 2022, titled “The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.