The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will grow 4.3% this year, as the country exits the grip of the coronavirus pandemic, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Economists raised their growth prediction for 2021 U.S. gross domestic product in the January survey, saying vaccinations and the prospect of additional financial relief from Washington for individuals and businesses brightened economic prospects. The latest 2021 growth prediction, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, was a sharp increase from the 3.7% growth forecast for 2021 in last month’s survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 21.2%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 23.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 8 – January 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.53%

full-year 2021:  4.26%

full-year 2022:  3.03%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 5.34%

December 2022: 4.59%

December 2023: 4.27%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.44%

December 2022: 1.77%

December 2023: 2.10%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 14, 2021, titled “The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 18, 2020:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 22, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy’s bounceback will depend on how quickly vaccines are distributed, according to forecasters. More than half of those surveyed said a speedy deployment of vaccines, once approved in the U.S., represents the biggest potential boost for the economy over the next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 23.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 26.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted December 4 – December 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.74%

full-year 2021:  3.69%

full-year 2022:  2.93%

full-year 2023:  2.38%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.71%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.84%

December 2023: 4.40%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .90%

December 2021: 1.28%

December 2022: 1.62%

December 2023: 1.99%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 11, 2020, titled “The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of November 13, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2020 & 2021

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 19, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect gross domestic product to contract 2.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. They forecast expansions of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, only slightly slower than in the prior month’s survey.

also:

Nearly 90% expect uncertainty to decrease for financial markets thanks to clarity about the election outcome and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine. Over 80% of respondents expect uncertainty to decrease for the economy in coming months.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 31.68%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted November 6 – November 10. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.66%

full-year 2021:  3.58%

full-year 2022:  2.88%

full-year 2023:  2.43%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.74%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.80%

December 2023: 4.37%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .88%

December 2021: 1.22%

December 2022: 1.63%

December 2023: 1.97%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 12, 2020, titled “The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of October 16, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2020 & 2021

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2020

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 21, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Economists in the April survey expected that on average, payrolls would recover to their February 2020 level in just over two years, by the third quarter of 2022.

In this month’s survey, just over a third of economists, 34.7%, broadly stuck with that timeline and said payrolls would recover in 2022. A larger share, 42.9%, now see the labor market recovering in 2023, and another 12.2% expect it will take even longer—with 2% expecting it will take until 2030.

also:

Most economists in this month’s survey said the outlook for a recovery in gross domestic product is notably faster than for jobs. More than half of economists, 57.4%, expected that in 2021, economic output will return to the seasonally and inflation-adjusted level of its prior peak in the final quarter of 2019. A further 18.5% of economists expected GDP to recover to its previous peak by the first quarter of 2022.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 31.68%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 36.93%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 2 – October 6. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -3.58%

full-year 2021:  3.70%

full-year 2022:  3.02%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 7.76%

December 2021: 6.21%

December 2022: 5.17%

December 2023: 4.65%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.10%

December 2022: 1.50%

December 2023: 1.85%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 8, 2020, titled “The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 11, 2020:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 forecast EPS

from page 23:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 17, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The projected rebound for the third quarter would recoup about half of the output lost in the first half of the year. To return to the previous peak recorded in the final quarter of last year, the economy would need to grow at a roughly 24% rate again in the fourth quarter of this year. Economists see that as unlikely: Their forecast for fourth-quarter growth is for a 4.9% annual rate, suggesting the recovery will be protracted.

The average forecast called for GDP to shrink 4.2% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 5.3% contraction predicted in last month’s survey.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy would still be on track to contract in 2020 by the most since contemporary records began in 1948, as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2008—during the financial crisis—GDP contracted just 2.8% from the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 36.93%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 37.04%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted September 4 – September 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.19%

full-year 2021:  4.00%

full-year 2022:  3.13%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.05%

December 2021: 6.34%

December 2022: 5.20%

December 2023: 4.69%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .77%

December 2021: 1.13%

December 2022: 1.54%

December 2023: 1.89%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 10, 2020, titled “The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August 7, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings trends

from page 24:

S&P500 annual earnings 2010-2021

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 20, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.