The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 15, 2023. The headline is “Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

In the latest WSJ survey, economists expected gross domestic product to have grown at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, a sharp uptick from 0.2% in the previous survey. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously. They expect the economy to grow 0.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 0.3% contraction expected in the prior survey, followed by a 0.1% contraction in the fourth. Forecasters said GDP would increase 1% in 2023, measured from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, double the previous forecast of 0.5%. 

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 7 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  .97%

full-year 2024:  1.26%

full-year 2025:  2.08%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.06%

December 2024: 4.46%

December 2025: 4.21%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.67%

December 2024: 3.40%

December 2025: 3.36%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 16, 2023, titled “The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June 9, 2023:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS 2023-2024

from page 28:

S&P500 2013-2024

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 20, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May 12, 2023:

from page 31:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2023 & 2024

from page 32:

S&P500 EPS 2013-2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 16, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 14, 2023:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2013-2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 18, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 16, 2023. The headline is “Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The economy is proving more resilient and inflation more stubborn than economists expected a few months ago, and as a result the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 7 – April 11. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  .45%

full-year 2024:  1.61%

full-year 2025:  2.20%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.30%

December 2024: 4.51%

December 2025: 4.25%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.42%

December 2024: 3.29%

December 2025: 3.28%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 16, 2023, titled “The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March 16, 2023:

from page 27:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 28:

S&P500 EPS 2013-2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 17, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of February 10, 2023:

from page 28:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 29:

S&P500 EPS 2013 - 2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 16, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January 13, 2023:

from page 30:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS trends

from page 31:

S&P500 EPS 2013-2024

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 17, 2023, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

While economists don’t think a recession can be avoided, they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived, in line with other recent surveys.

On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and contract 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth.

Economists expect GDP to stagnate this year, posting growth of just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. In the WSJ survey in October, economists forecast 0.4% GDP growth in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 6 – January 10. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .97%

full-year 2023:  .17%

full-year 2024:  1.86%

full-year 2025:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.65%

December 2024: 4.63%

December 2025: 4.23%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.52%

December 2024: 3.33%

December 2025: 3.36%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 15, 2023, titled “The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 15, 2022:

from page 30:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 31:

S&P500 EPS 2012-2023

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 19, 2022, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.