The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2022. The headline is “As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49% in July, on average, up from 44% a month ago and just 18% in January.

Some 46% of economists said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates excessively and cause unnecessary economic weakness. Slightly fewer, 42%, said they anticipated the Fed increasing rates about the right amount to balance inflation and growth. Around 12.3% thought it would raise rates too little.

As noted above, and also seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 49%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey [the previously published survey] was 44%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 8 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .71%

full-year 2023:  1.14%

full-year 2024:  2.05%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.76%

December 2023: 4.28%

December 2024: 4.35%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 3.32%

December 2023: 3.22%

December 2024: 3.17%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 17, 2022, titled “The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 10, 2022. The headline is “Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.

also:

Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 28%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 17.74%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 1 – April 5. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  2.57%

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  2.06%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.44%

December 2023: 3.56%

December 2024: 3.74%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.73%

December 2023: 2.85%

December 2024: 2.93%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 11, 2022, titled “The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

The combination of higher inflation, supply-chain constraints and the fast-spreading Omicron variant caused economists to trim their forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, from 3.6% in October. Last year, output rose 5.2%, economists estimate.

also:

On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.74%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the last survey published] was 15.94%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 7 – January 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.20%

full-year 2022:  3.30%

full-year 2023:  2.42%

full-year 2024:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.52%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.53%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.20%

December 2023: 2.54%

December 2024: 2.84%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 16, 2022, titled “The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.