Category Archives: Economic Forecasts

economic forecasts

The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 12, 2019.  The headline is “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The Trump administration’s goal of achieving economic growth of 3% or better is looking increasingly remote this year, according to forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Private-sector economists surveyed in recent days expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand an inflation-adjusted 2.2% this year on average, measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Forecasters expect economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2020 and will be 1.9% in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 33.57%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted September 6 – September 10, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.20%

full-year 2020:  1.68%

full-year 2021:  1.85%

full-year 2022:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.67%

December 2020: 3.87%

December 2021: 4.09%

December 2022: 4.13%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.69%

December 2020: 1.97%

December 2021: 2.24%

December 2022: 2.41%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 13, 2019, titled “The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 8, 2019.  The headline is “Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The overwhelming majority of economists—87.8%—also see risks to the economic outlook as tilted to the downside. That was up from 69.6% last month and the highest level since the start of 2015. Most respondents mentioned trade as the main risk to the economy.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 33.57%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 65%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 30.10%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted August 2 – August 5, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.21%

full-year 2020:  1.75%

full-year 2021:  1.80%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.65%

December 2020: 3.90%

December 2021: 4.04%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.01%

December 2020: 2.19%

December 2021: 2.39%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 9, 2019, titled “The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2019.  The headline is “President Trump’s Criticism of the Fed Hasn’t Shifted Perception of Its Independence, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists said they expected the Fed’s policy rate would average 1.99% at the end of the year, suggesting forecasters were largely split between those who saw the Fed cutting rates once this year and those who saw two rate cuts.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.10%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 2% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 30.07%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 53 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 5 – July 9, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.75%

full-year 2021:  1.84%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.61%

December 2020: 3.84%

December 2021: 4.06%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.18%

December 2020: 2.38%

December 2021: 2.58%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 16, 2019, titled “The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 13, 2019.  The headline is “Trump Tariffs Are Short-Term Pain Without Long-Term Gain, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Looking at the economy as a whole, 74% of economists said they saw the risks for growth tilted to the downside—up from 58% in May and 47% this time a year ago.

Nearly half of economists in the latest survey, 48.8%, expect the next recession in 2020. That was up from just over a third in the May survey. Some 36.6% predict the next downturn will start in 2021, down from just over half in last month’s survey. Just under 5% expect it will begin this year, up from just over 2% in May.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.07%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 22.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 7 – June 11, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.6%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.34%

December 2020: 2.48%

December 2021: 2.60%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 13, 2019, titled “The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019.  The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Just over a third of economists, 35.7%, expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 52.4% expect it will start in 2021. That marked a shift from the prior two surveys, when nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020. In April, 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021, while in March about a third forecast a downturn to begin in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 25.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted May 3 – May 7, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.75%

December 2020: 2.80%

December 2021: 2.82%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 9, 2019, titled “The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2019.  The headline is “Raising Minimum Wage Would Cost Jobs, Say Economists in WSJ Survey.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020, while 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021.

But the number of economists who say the economy could surprise them for the better nearly doubled to more than 22% in April from the prior month.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 24.51%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 63 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 9, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.80%

December 2020: 2.83%

December 2021: 2.90%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 11, 2019, titled “The April 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The March 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 14, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Cut Forecasts For Jobs and Economic Growth in Early 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

A large majority of economists, 84.2%, said they saw a greater risk that the economy would grow more slowly than that it would grow more quickly over the next 12 months. When asked about the biggest downside risk to their forecasts, nearly half of respondents, 46.8%, mentioned trade policy or China.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.51%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 24.53%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 66 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted March 8 – March 12, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.93%

December 2020: 2.94%

December 2021: 2.99%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 14, 2019, titled “The March 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2019.  The headline is “ Most Economists Say Fresh Government Shutdown Would Hurt U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

In response to a separate question, most forecasters, 45.7%, said they expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 39.1% predicted it will start in 2021.

also:

More than three-quarters of forecasters, 76.4%, said they saw a greater risk that the economy would grow more slowly than it would grow faster. While that was a drop from 83.9% in January, it remains a sign of pessimism about the outlook. This time a year ago, fewer than 30% of respondents saw the risk to their growth forecast as tilted to the downside.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 24.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 62 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 1 – February 5, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.04%

December 2020: 3.08%

December 2021: 3.11%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 7, 2019, titled “The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 10, 2019.  The headline is “Economists See U.S. Recession Risks Rising.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. The probability was just 13% a year ago.

also:

Forecasters are even more concerned about the outlook for 2020. More than half of the economists, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year, while another 26.4% of those surveyed expect a recession in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 22.02%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 73 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted January 4 – January 8, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.10%

December 2020: 3.12%

December 2021: 3.18%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 10, 2019, titled “The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2018.  The headline is “Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3%, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20% cited financial market disruptions and 12.7% pointed to a slowdown in business investment.

also:

Just 7.3% of economists, or four respondents in total, agreed that Fed rate increases were the biggest threat to the economy in 2019.

A couple of private-sector economists cited other risks, such as excessive federal spending. Just over 9% pointed to slowing global growth as the biggest threat.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.02%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 19.55%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted December 7 – December 11, 2018.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.00%

December 2019: 3.35%

December 2020: 3.38%

December 2021: 3.36%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 13, 2018, titled “The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.