Category Archives: Economic Forecasts

economic forecasts

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.64%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.07%

December 2021: 6.75%

December 2022: 5.61%

December 2023: 4.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .86%

December 2021: 1.25%

December 2022: 1.68%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 10, 2020, titled “The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found that more than two-thirds of economists, 68.4%, expect the economic recovery to start in the third quarter. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it already began in the current, second quarter. The U.S. entered a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined this week.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 73.54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 94.6%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 5 – June 9, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.87%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.09%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.64%

December 2021: 6.95%

December 2022: 5.69%

December 2023: 4.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .97%

December 2021: 1.38%

December 2022: 1.80%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 12, 2020, titled “The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause 17% Unemployment in June.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found economists expect gross domestic product to shrink 6.6% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, a downgrade from the 4.9% contraction economists predicted in last month’s survey. While economists expect a deeper contraction in the second quarter, a majority—85%—continue to expect the recovery will start in the second half of the year. They predict an annualized growth rate of 8.5% in the third quarter, up from 6.2% in the prior survey. Growth is expected to clock in at 6.7% in the fourth quarter, broadly unchanged from last month.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 94.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 96.24%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted May 8 – May 12, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -6.64%

full-year 2021:  5.00%

full-year 2022:  2.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 11.38%

December 2021: 7.55%

December 2022: 5.83%

December 2023: 4.91%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .85%

December 2021: 1.30%

December 2022: 1.73%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 13, 2020, titled “The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 8, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

The coronavirus pandemic will cause a severe economic contraction, 14.4 million job losses and a spike in the unemployment rate this spring, with an economic recovery starting the second half of the year, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Business and academic economists in this month’s survey expect, on average, that the unemployment rate will hit 13% in June this year, and still be at 10% in December. The jobless rate was 4.4% in March.

also:

Economists predict gross domestic product will contract at an annual rate of 25% in the second quarter. That is a sharp downgrade from the March survey of economists, when they expected GDP to shrink just 0.1% from April to June.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 96.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 15% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 48.8%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted April 3 – April 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.90%

full-year 2021:  5.08%

full-year 2022:  2.59%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.66%

December 2021: 6.54%

December 2022: 4.88%

December 2023: 4.63%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .95%

December 2021: 1.41%

December 2022: 1.83%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 8, 2020, titled “The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Business and academic economists in the survey now expect, on average, gross domestic product to contract 0.1% at an annual rate in the second quarter. That is a large downgrade from February, when they still expected GDP growth of 1.9% from April to June.

The monthly survey of economists found 75% of economists expect the coronavirus spread to be a “significant drag” on full-year economic growth in 2020, shaving more than 0.5 percentage point from growth as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 48.8%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 20% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 25.6%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 55 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted March 6 – March 10, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  1.16%

full-year 2021:  2.09%

full-year 2022:  2.03%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.90%

December 2021: 3.91%

December 2022: 3.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 1.19%

December 2021: 1.68%

December 2022: 2.04%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 12, 2020, titled “The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Some 35% of economists expect the next recession will start in 2021, up from 30.9% last month’s survey, while 29.7% expect one to start in 2022. Just 10.8% see a recession starting this year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 23.97%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 7 – February 11, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  1.88%

full-year 2021:  1.94%

full-year 2022:  1.91%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.60%

December 2021: 3.81%

December 2022: 4.01%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 1.98%

December 2021: 2.20%

December 2022: 2.44%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 13, 2020, titled “The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S., China Agreement Will Boost Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

On average, forecasters expected GDP would expand 1.9% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of this year, compared with an anticipated 2.3% in 2019. GDP increased 2.5% in 2018 from the year-earlier fourth quarter and 2.8% in 2017, according to the Commerce Department. Economists saw the unemployment rate, which was 3.5% in December, ticking up to 3.6% in December 2020.

also:

Still, economists were broadly upbeat for 2020. The probability of a recession this year ticked down in January to 24%, the lowest average since last May.

About 30% of economists said they expect the next recession to start in 2021, and another 30% see one in 2022. Roughly 14% expect it in 2023.

As mentioned above, as well as seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 23.97%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 25.85%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted January 10 – January 14, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.27%

full-year 2020:  1.87%

full-year 2021:  1.97%

full-year 2022:  1.97%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.62%

December 2021: 3.83%

December 2022: 4.04%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 2.03%

December 2021: 2.25%

December 2022: 2.53%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 16, 2020, titled “The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 18, 2019.  The headline is “U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Three excerpts:

The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.

also:

On average, they expect U.S. economic growth to slow slightly in 2020, to a year-over-year rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter from an estimated 2.2% in 2019. They also see lower odds of a recession over the next year than they did in the prior two months.

also:

Just over a third of economists expect the next recession will come in 2021. One-fifth expect it in 2020, and 22.9% expect it to come in 2022.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.85%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 5% to 65%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 30.19%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted December 12 – December 16, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.24%

full-year 2020:  1.78%

full-year 2021:  1.88%

full-year 2022:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.53%

December 2020: 3.68%

December 2021: 3.84%

December 2022: 3.98%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.84%

December 2020: 2.01%

December 2021: 2.28%

December 2022: 2.54%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 18, 2019, titled “The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 7, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists are roughly split over whether the recent hiring slowdown reflects primarily a shortage of workers or softening demand for labor, a sign of continuing uncertainty about the outlook.

In The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists, 45.3% blamed the slowdown on the tight labor market, which has made it harder for many employers to find enough workers. An additional 37.7% of respondents said the issue was ebbing desire to expand payrolls.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.19%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 34.19%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted November 1 – November 5, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.08%

full-year 2020:  1.72%

full-year 2021:  1.96%

full-year 2022:  1.94%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.60%

December 2020: 3.79%

December 2021: 3.97%

December 2022: 4.03%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.76%

December 2020: 1.97%

December 2021: 2.29%

December 2022: 2.51%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 8, 2019, titled “The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 10, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Majority of Economists Say Manufacturing Sector in Recession.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

U.S. manufacturing is in recession, two-thirds of economic forecasters said in a survey, and overall growth in the second half of 2019 is expected to further slow.

In a Wall Street Journal economic survey conducted in recent days, 65.3% of private-sector forecasters said the manufacturing sector was in recession, or two or more consecutive quarters of contraction.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.19%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 70%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 34.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 55 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted October 4 – October 8, 2019.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.17%

full-year 2020:  1.61%

full-year 2021:  1.85%

full-year 2022:  1.95%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.61%

December 2020: 3.89%

December 2021: 4.02%

December 2022: 4.07%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.68%

December 2020: 1.92%

December 2021: 2.28%

December 2022: 2.54%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 11, 2019, titled “The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.