The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 15, 2023. The headline is “A Recession Is No Longer The Consensus.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 48%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 6 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  .98%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

full-year 2026:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 3.90%

December 2024: 4.41%

December 2025: 4.17%

December 2026: 4.02%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 4.47%

December 2024: 3.94%

December 2025: 3.81%

December 2026: 3.72%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 15, 2023, titled “The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 15, 2023. The headline is “Economists Are Cutting Back Their Recession Expectations.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

In the latest WSJ survey, economists expected gross domestic product to have grown at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, a sharp uptick from 0.2% in the previous survey. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously. They expect the economy to grow 0.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 0.3% contraction expected in the prior survey, followed by a 0.1% contraction in the fourth. Forecasters said GDP would increase 1% in 2023, measured from the fourth quarter of a year earlier, double the previous forecast of 0.5%. 

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 7 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  .97%

full-year 2024:  1.26%

full-year 2025:  2.08%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.06%

December 2024: 4.46%

December 2025: 4.21%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.67%

December 2024: 3.40%

December 2025: 3.36%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 16, 2023, titled “The July 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 16, 2023. The headline is “Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The economy is proving more resilient and inflation more stubborn than economists expected a few months ago, and as a result the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 61%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 7 – April 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  .45%

full-year 2024:  1.61%

full-year 2025:  2.20%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.30%

December 2024: 4.51%

December 2025: 4.25%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.42%

December 2024: 3.29%

December 2025: 3.28%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 16, 2023, titled “The April 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

While economists don’t think a recession can be avoided, they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived, in line with other recent surveys.

On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and contract 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth.

Economists expect GDP to stagnate this year, posting growth of just 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. In the WSJ survey in October, economists forecast 0.4% GDP growth in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 6 – January 10. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .97%

full-year 2023:  .17%

full-year 2024:  1.86%

full-year 2025:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 4.65%

December 2024: 4.63%

December 2025: 4.23%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 3.52%

December 2024: 3.33%

December 2025: 3.36%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 15, 2023, titled “The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.

also:

Economists’ average forecasts suggest that they expect a recession to be relatively short-lived. Of the economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year, their average expectation for the length of a recession was eight months. The average postwar recession lasted 10.2 months.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 49%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 7 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .22%

full-year 2023:  .44%

full-year 2024:  1.82%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.70%

December 2023: 4.71%

December 2024: 4.64%

December 2025: 4.31%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 3.84%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.19%

December 2025: 3.20%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 16, 2022, titled “The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2022. The headline is “As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal now put the chance of a recession sometime in the next 12 months at 49% in July, on average, up from 44% a month ago and just 18% in January.

Some 46% of economists said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates excessively and cause unnecessary economic weakness. Slightly fewer, 42%, said they anticipated the Fed increasing rates about the right amount to balance inflation and growth. Around 12.3% thought it would raise rates too little.

As noted above, and also seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 49%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 99%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey [the previously published survey] was 44%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 8 – July 12. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  .71%

full-year 2023:  1.14%

full-year 2024:  2.05%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.76%

December 2023: 4.28%

December 2024: 4.35%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 3.32%

December 2023: 3.22%

December 2024: 3.17%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 17, 2022, titled “The July 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 10, 2022. The headline is “Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.

also:

Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 28%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 17.74%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 1 – April 5. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2022:  2.57%

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  2.06%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.44%

December 2023: 3.56%

December 2024: 3.74%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.73%

December 2023: 2.85%

December 2024: 2.93%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 11, 2022, titled “The April 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2022. The headline is “Omicron, Inflation Drive Down U.S. Growth Outlook.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

Two excerpts:

The combination of higher inflation, supply-chain constraints and the fast-spreading Omicron variant caused economists to trim their forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, from 3.6% in October. Last year, output rose 5.2%, economists estimate.

also:

On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.74%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the last survey published] was 15.94%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 7 – January 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.20%

full-year 2022:  3.30%

full-year 2023:  2.42%

full-year 2024:  2.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2022: 3.52%

December 2023: 3.45%

December 2024: 3.53%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2022: 2.20%

December 2023: 2.54%

December 2024: 2.84%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 16, 2022, titled “The January 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 17, 2021. The headline is “Supply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Uncomfortably high inflation will grip the U.S. economy well into 2022, as constrained supply chains keep upward pressure on prices and, increasingly, curb output, according to economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal.

The economists’ inflation projections are up dramatically from July, while short-term growth outlooks are lower.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 15.94%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the last survey published] was 11.56%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 67 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 8 – October 12. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.22%

full-year 2022:  3.59%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

full-year 2024:  2.23%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.63%

December 2022: 3.91%

December 2023: 3.64%

December 2024: 3.66%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.69%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.45%

December 2024: 2.66%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 19, 2021, titled “The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2021. The headline is “Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.56%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the last survey published] was 12.53%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.89%

full-year 2022:  3.24%

full-year 2023:  2.30%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.89%

December 2022: 4.12%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.79%

December 2022: 2.11%

December 2023: 2.41%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 11, 2021, titled “The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.