Category Archives: Economic Forecasts

economic forecasts

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2021. The headline is “With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since 1983, Inflation Lurks.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. has produced many more Star Wars films since 1983, but growth has never approached that level—until this year, if economists are right. Those surveyed by The Wall Street Journal boosted their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 6.4%, measured as the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. If realized, that would be one of the few times in 70 years that the economy has grown so fast.

also:

Growth of 6% or better was more common before the 1980s, when underlying growth was higher and usually came right after recessions with the help of loose monetary and fiscal policy. The contraction in output in the first half of last year was far more severe than any previous recession, so a strong recovery was partly inevitable. Indeed, GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of last year.

The scale of federal stimulus is greater than in the previous recoveries, at nearly $6 trillion, or more than one-quarter of annual GDP. Mr. Reagan’s combination of tax cuts and military spending was spread out over a longer period, said Mr. Sinai. “It makes it hard for a forecaster because I’ve not seen anything like this, ever,” he said.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 12.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 11.62%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 7. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.41%

full-year 2022:  3.21%

full-year 2023:  2.39%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.83%

December 2022: 4.10%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.93%

December 2022: 2.22%

December 2023: 2.50%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 12, 2021, titled “The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2021. The headline is “Latest Stimulus Package Could Jolt U.S. Growth, Revive Inflation in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The nearly $1.9 trillion relief package heading for House passage Wednesday is projected to help propel the U.S. economy to its fastest annual growth in nearly four decades, reduce poverty and revive inflation.

The legislation—following trillions of dollars in federal aid last year and arriving amid rising Covid-19 vaccination rates—prompted economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in recent days to boost their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 5.95%, measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the same period this year. That was up from their 4.87% projection last month and would be the U.S. economy’s fastest since a 7.9% burst in 1983.

The analysts also lifted their forecasts for inflation and job growth from last month’s survey. The new poll found that they expected consumer prices would rise 2.48% by December from a year earlier and projected that employers will add an average 514,000 jobs a month over the next four quarters.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.62%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 17.51%.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.95%

full-year 2022:  3.17%

full-year 2023:  2.44%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.97%

December 2022: 4.27%

December 2023: 3.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.78%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.43%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 10, 2021, titled “The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2021. The headline is “Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Economists on average expected gross domestic product to expand nearly 4.9% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, according to the business and academic economists surveyed in February, an improvement from their 4.3% forecast in January. They cited the distribution of Covid-19 vaccinations and the prospect of additional fiscal relief from Washington for the brightening outlook.

also:

“The economy is already picking up some growth momentum in the first quarter,” said Brian Bethune, professor of economics at Boston College. “The large $1.9 trillion stimulus package will provide significant insurance against a relapse into recession,” he said, referring to President Biden’s proposal.

More than half of the respondents said the amount of fiscal aid the economy needs to recover from the coronavirus shock was less than $1 trillion, while only one said that more than $2 trillion was required.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.51%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 79%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 21.2%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted February 5 – February 9. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  4.87%

full-year 2022:  3.07%

full-year 2023:  2.46%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 5.28%

December 2022: 4.46%

December 2023: 4.10%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.48%

December 2022: 1.85%

December 2023: 2.18%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 12, 2021, titled “The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will grow 4.3% this year, as the country exits the grip of the coronavirus pandemic, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Economists raised their growth prediction for 2021 U.S. gross domestic product in the January survey, saying vaccinations and the prospect of additional financial relief from Washington for individuals and businesses brightened economic prospects. The latest 2021 growth prediction, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, was a sharp increase from the 3.7% growth forecast for 2021 in last month’s survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 21.2%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 23.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 8 – January 12. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.53%

full-year 2021:  4.26%

full-year 2022:  3.03%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 5.34%

December 2022: 4.59%

December 2023: 4.27%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.44%

December 2022: 1.77%

December 2023: 2.10%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 14, 2021, titled “The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy’s bounceback will depend on how quickly vaccines are distributed, according to forecasters. More than half of those surveyed said a speedy deployment of vaccines, once approved in the U.S., represents the biggest potential boost for the economy over the next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 23.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 26.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted December 4 – December 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.74%

full-year 2021:  3.69%

full-year 2022:  2.93%

full-year 2023:  2.38%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.71%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.84%

December 2023: 4.40%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .90%

December 2021: 1.28%

December 2022: 1.62%

December 2023: 1.99%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 11, 2020, titled “The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect gross domestic product to contract 2.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. They forecast expansions of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, only slightly slower than in the prior month’s survey.

also:

Nearly 90% expect uncertainty to decrease for financial markets thanks to clarity about the election outcome and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine. Over 80% of respondents expect uncertainty to decrease for the economy in coming months.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 31.68%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted November 6 – November 10. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.66%

full-year 2021:  3.58%

full-year 2022:  2.88%

full-year 2023:  2.43%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.74%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.80%

December 2023: 4.37%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .88%

December 2021: 1.22%

December 2022: 1.63%

December 2023: 1.97%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 12, 2020, titled “The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Economists in the April survey expected that on average, payrolls would recover to their February 2020 level in just over two years, by the third quarter of 2022.

In this month’s survey, just over a third of economists, 34.7%, broadly stuck with that timeline and said payrolls would recover in 2022. A larger share, 42.9%, now see the labor market recovering in 2023, and another 12.2% expect it will take even longer—with 2% expecting it will take until 2030.

also:

Most economists in this month’s survey said the outlook for a recovery in gross domestic product is notably faster than for jobs. More than half of economists, 57.4%, expected that in 2021, economic output will return to the seasonally and inflation-adjusted level of its prior peak in the final quarter of 2019. A further 18.5% of economists expected GDP to recover to its previous peak by the first quarter of 2022.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 31.68%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 36.93%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 2 – October 6. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -3.58%

full-year 2021:  3.70%

full-year 2022:  3.02%

full-year 2023:  2.41%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 7.76%

December 2021: 6.21%

December 2022: 5.17%

December 2023: 4.65%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.10%

December 2022: 1.50%

December 2023: 1.85%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 8, 2020, titled “The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The projected rebound for the third quarter would recoup about half of the output lost in the first half of the year. To return to the previous peak recorded in the final quarter of last year, the economy would need to grow at a roughly 24% rate again in the fourth quarter of this year. Economists see that as unlikely: Their forecast for fourth-quarter growth is for a 4.9% annual rate, suggesting the recovery will be protracted.

The average forecast called for GDP to shrink 4.2% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 5.3% contraction predicted in last month’s survey.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy would still be on track to contract in 2020 by the most since contemporary records began in 1948, as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2008—during the financial crisis—GDP contracted just 2.8% from the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 36.93%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 37.04%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted September 4 – September 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.19%

full-year 2021:  4.00%

full-year 2022:  3.13%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.05%

December 2021: 6.34%

December 2022: 5.20%

December 2023: 4.69%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .77%

December 2021: 1.13%

December 2022: 1.54%

December 2023: 1.89%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 10, 2020, titled “The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists surveyed this month saw the economy rebounding 18.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, following the 32.9% drop in the second quarter. That was higher than their July forecast of a 15.2% third-quarter bounceback. But economists trimmed their forecasts for the following four quarters, suggesting they see a long recovery ahead.

Roughly 70% percent of economists surveyed said the recovery would look like a “Nike swoosh,” characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a gradual recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 37.04%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 54.41%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.33%

full-year 2021:  4.39%

full-year 2022:  3.37%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.96%

December 2021: 6.63%

December 2022: 5.47%

December 2023: 4.88%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.17%

December 2022: 1.58%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 14, 2020, titled “The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.64%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.07%

December 2021: 6.75%

December 2022: 5.61%

December 2023: 4.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .86%

December 2021: 1.25%

December 2022: 1.68%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 10, 2020, titled “The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.