Category Archives: Economic Forecasts

economic forecasts

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September 11, 2020:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 forecast EPS

from page 23:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 17, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The projected rebound for the third quarter would recoup about half of the output lost in the first half of the year. To return to the previous peak recorded in the final quarter of last year, the economy would need to grow at a roughly 24% rate again in the fourth quarter of this year. Economists see that as unlikely: Their forecast for fourth-quarter growth is for a 4.9% annual rate, suggesting the recovery will be protracted.

The average forecast called for GDP to shrink 4.2% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 5.3% contraction predicted in last month’s survey.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy would still be on track to contract in 2020 by the most since contemporary records began in 1948, as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2008—during the financial crisis—GDP contracted just 2.8% from the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 36.93%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 37.04%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted September 4 – September 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.19%

full-year 2021:  4.00%

full-year 2022:  3.13%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.05%

December 2021: 6.34%

December 2022: 5.20%

December 2023: 4.69%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .77%

December 2021: 1.13%

December 2022: 1.54%

December 2023: 1.89%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 10, 2020, titled “The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Earnings Estimates Trends

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August 7, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings trends

from page 24:

S&P500 annual earnings 2010-2021

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 20, 2020, titled “Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists surveyed this month saw the economy rebounding 18.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, following the 32.9% drop in the second quarter. That was higher than their July forecast of a 15.2% third-quarter bounceback. But economists trimmed their forecasts for the following four quarters, suggesting they see a long recovery ahead.

Roughly 70% percent of economists surveyed said the recovery would look like a “Nike swoosh,” characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a gradual recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 37.04%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 54.41%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.33%

full-year 2021:  4.39%

full-year 2022:  3.37%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 8.96%

December 2021: 6.63%

December 2022: 5.47%

December 2023: 4.88%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .76%

December 2021: 1.17%

December 2022: 1.58%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of August 14, 2020, titled “The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

In the latest survey, 70% of economists said they expect the recovery to resemble a “swoosh” shape similar to the Nike logo, with a large drop followed by a gradual recovery. That was broadly unchanged from the two previous monthly surveys and a contrast to the predictions of Trump administration officials, who have predicted a swift, V-shaped recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 54.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 73.54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.64%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.22%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.07%

December 2021: 6.75%

December 2022: 5.61%

December 2023: 4.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .86%

December 2021: 1.25%

December 2022: 1.68%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 10, 2020, titled “The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found that more than two-thirds of economists, 68.4%, expect the economic recovery to start in the third quarter. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it already began in the current, second quarter. The U.S. entered a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined this week.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 73.54%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 94.6%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 5 – June 9, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -5.87%

full-year 2021:  4.70%

full-year 2022:  3.09%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.64%

December 2021: 6.95%

December 2022: 5.69%

December 2023: 4.97%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .97%

December 2021: 1.38%

December 2022: 1.80%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 12, 2020, titled “The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause 17% Unemployment in June.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

A monthly Wall Street Journal survey found economists expect gross domestic product to shrink 6.6% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, a downgrade from the 4.9% contraction economists predicted in last month’s survey. While economists expect a deeper contraction in the second quarter, a majority—85%—continue to expect the recovery will start in the second half of the year. They predict an annualized growth rate of 8.5% in the third quarter, up from 6.2% in the prior survey. Growth is expected to clock in at 6.7% in the fourth quarter, broadly unchanged from last month.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 94.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 96.24%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted May 8 – May 12, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -6.64%

full-year 2021:  5.00%

full-year 2022:  2.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 11.38%

December 2021: 7.55%

December 2022: 5.83%

December 2023: 4.91%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .85%

December 2021: 1.30%

December 2022: 1.73%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 13, 2020, titled “The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 8, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

The coronavirus pandemic will cause a severe economic contraction, 14.4 million job losses and a spike in the unemployment rate this spring, with an economic recovery starting the second half of the year, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Business and academic economists in this month’s survey expect, on average, that the unemployment rate will hit 13% in June this year, and still be at 10% in December. The jobless rate was 4.4% in March.

also:

Economists predict gross domestic product will contract at an annual rate of 25% in the second quarter. That is a sharp downgrade from the March survey of economists, when they expected GDP to shrink just 0.1% from April to June.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 96.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 15% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 48.8%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted April 3 – April 7, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -4.90%

full-year 2021:  5.08%

full-year 2022:  2.59%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 9.66%

December 2021: 6.54%

December 2022: 4.88%

December 2023: 4.63%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .95%

December 2021: 1.41%

December 2022: 1.83%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 8, 2020, titled “The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Business and academic economists in the survey now expect, on average, gross domestic product to contract 0.1% at an annual rate in the second quarter. That is a large downgrade from February, when they still expected GDP growth of 1.9% from April to June.

The monthly survey of economists found 75% of economists expect the coronavirus spread to be a “significant drag” on full-year economic growth in 2020, shaving more than 0.5 percentage point from growth as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 48.8%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 20% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 25.6%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 55 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted March 6 – March 10, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  1.16%

full-year 2021:  2.09%

full-year 2022:  2.03%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.90%

December 2021: 3.91%

December 2022: 3.93%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 1.19%

December 2021: 1.68%

December 2022: 2.04%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 12, 2020, titled “The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Some 35% of economists expect the next recession will start in 2021, up from 30.9% last month’s survey, while 29.7% expect one to start in 2022. Just 10.8% see a recession starting this year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 23.97%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 7 – February 11, 2020.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  1.88%

full-year 2021:  1.94%

full-year 2022:  1.91%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 3.60%

December 2021: 3.81%

December 2022: 4.01%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: 1.98%

December 2021: 2.20%

December 2022: 2.44%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 13, 2020, titled “The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.