The January NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, February 10, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “NFIB:  Small Business Optimism Falls, But Still In Normal Zone.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased 2.5 points in January to 97.9.

Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

OPTIMISM INDEX

The Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, giving back the December gain that took the Index over 100. Still, the Index indicates that the small business sector is operating in a somewhat “normal” zone. Seven components fell, one was unchanged and 2 rose a bit. Most of the decline was accounted for by expected business conditions (43 percent of the decline), expected real sales (14 percent) and earnings (14 percent). The good news was the increase in the percent of owners reporting hard to fill openings and the drop of only 1 point in the net percent of owners planning job creation from December’s very good number.

also:

LABOR MARKETS

The percent of owners reporting job creation fell 4 percentage points to a net 5 percent of owners, still a solid number. Thirteen percent report increasing employment an average of 3.1 workers while 8 percent reduced their workforce by an average of 3.2 workers. Forty-eight percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down 6 points), but 42 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Fourteen percent reported using temporary workers, unchanged. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point and a very solid reading. The net percent of owners planning to create new jobs gave up 1 point from December’s excellent reading, providing evidence that the December number was not a fluke. A net 14 percent planning to create new jobs is a strong reading.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the February 10 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Optimism:  Index Relinquishes Some of Its December Advance“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the full January 2015 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report.

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of February 10, 2015, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  January 2015”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 14. The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB:  Small Business Optimism Index Declines in September. ”

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased .8 points in September to 95.3.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

September’s optimism index gave up 0.8 points, falling to 95.3. At 95.3, the Index is now 5 points below the pre-recession average (from 1973 to 2007). Four Index components improved, six declined.  Two declined by 10 points total, accounting for the entire decline in the Index score.  Unfortunately, the two that fell drastically were job openings and planned capital outlays, which are directly relevant to GDP growth and hiring.

also:

Sales.  The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months deteriorated 2 points to a net negative 4 percent. Fourteen percent cited weak sales as their top business problem, one of the lowest readings since December 2007, but up 1 point from August.   Expected real sales volumes posted a 1 point decline, falling to a net 5 percent of owners expecting gains after dropping 4 points in August.   Overall, these readings are more like a recession period than one of expansion.

also:

Inventories. The pace of inventory reduction accelerated, with a net negative 7 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted).  Clearly firms are liquidating stocks faster than adding to them.   With sales trends weakening, the reductions in inventories are not surprising.

The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as “too low” improved a point to a net negative 0 percent, a very balanced reading. Sales trends continued to deteriorate a bit but remained near the best levels in the recovery, just historically weak.  Expected real sales did not improve, and this contributed to less urgency to rebuild stocks.  The net percent of owners planning to add to inventory stocks rose 1 point to a net 2 percent.  While inventory accumulation can add to GDP growth, there isn’t much “juice” in the small business sector to contribute.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the October 14 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Optimism Drops“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the full October 2014 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of October 14, 2014, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  October 2014”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 12.  The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB SBET: Small Business Optimism Ticks Up Slightly.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .7 points in July to 95.7.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

July’s Optimism Index technically rose 0.7 points to a reading of 95.7. There was little change in the 10 Index components other than outlook for expansion and business conditions which accounted for the small gain in the Index. Even though these improved, they still remain historically low.

also:

•    Sales.  The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months fell 1 point to a net negative 3 percent,  still one of the very best readings since 2007. Thirteen percent cited weak sales as their top business problem, one of the lowest readings since December, 2007, the peak of the expansion. Expected real sales volumes posted a 1 point decline, falling to a net 10 percent of owners expecting gains. 

also:

•    Credit Markets. Six percent of the owners reported that all their credit needs were not met, unchanged and only 2 points above the record low. Thirty percent reported all credit needs met, and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 22 percent citing taxes, 22 percent citing regulations and red tape and 13 percent citing weak sales. 

The net percent of owners expecting credit conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted negative 5 percent; more owners expect that it will be “harder” to arrange financing than easier (a 2 point improvement). This is the most favorable reading about credit market conditions since 2006, occurring at a time when the Fed is terminating its aggressive QE3 policy.  

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the August 12 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  ‘Optimism Ticks Up Slightly’“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the full August 2014 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of August 12, 2014, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  August 2014”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 10.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Sentiment – Improves a Bit But Is No Sign Of A Surge.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 1.4 points in May to 96.6.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

NFIB Optimism Index rose 1.4 points in May to 96.6, the highest reading since September 2007.  However, while May is the third up month in a row, the Index is still far below readings that have normally accompanied an expansion and there have been similar gains in the past that haven’t panned out in this recovery period. Five Index components improved, one was unchanged and four fell, although not by much.  

also:

•    Labor Markets.  NFIB owners increased employment by an average of 0.11 workers per firm in May (seasonally adjusted), the eighth positive month in a row and the best string of gains since 2006.  Seasonally adjusted, 11 percent of the owners (down 2 points) reported adding an average of 3.0 workers per firm over the past few months. 

also:

•    Credit Markets. Five percent of the owners reported that all their credit needs were not met, unchanged and 1 point over the record low.  Thirty percent reported all credit needs met, and 53 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan.  Only 3 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 25 percent citing taxes, 20 percent citing regulations and red tape and 12 percent citing weak sales. Owners remain more concerned about taxes, regulations and health insurance costs.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the June 10 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  Third Month of Improvement“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the full June 2014 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of June 10, 2014, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  June 2014”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The April NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, April 8.  The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB:  Small-Business Owner Roller Coaster Continues.”  The subtitle is “After February’s Decline, Confidence Up in March”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 2.0 points in March to 93.4.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

“Overall, the March gain more or less reversed the February decline. While the Index still can’t seem to get above 95, we can be encouraged that the economy is at least crawling forward and not heading in reverse,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. The outlook for real sales gains accounted for about half of the improvement with inventory satisfaction and inventory investment plans accounting for most of the rest. However, throughout this recovery we’ve seen these types of increases only to have them go nowhere. As long as Washington continues to ignore policies that could restore the middle class, job creation will continue to be sub-par.”

also:

Credit Markets. Credit continues to be a non-issue for small employers. In March only 5 percent of owners reported that all their credit needs were not met, 1 point above the record low.  Thirty percent reported all credit needs met, and 48 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan.  Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 21 percent citing taxes, 21 percent citing regulations and red tape and 14 percent citing weak sales.

also:

Inflation.  Twelve percent of the NFIB owners reported reducing their average selling prices in the past 3 months (down 3 points), and 23 percent reported price increases (up 4 points).  Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was a net 9 percent, up 8 points.  Only 3 percent plan reductions (unchanged), far fewer than actual reported reductions. Seasonally adjusted, a net 19 percent plan price hikes (down 4 points).  If successful, the economy may see a bit more “inflation”.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the April 8 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Sentiment improved in March“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the full April 2014 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of April 8, 2014, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  April 2014”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The February NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, February 11.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Confidence Edges Up, Ever So Slightly.”  The subtitle is “Main Street Still Cautious About The Future.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .2 points in January to 94.1.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

Small business optimism started the year slightly up from December at 94.1 but well below the pre-recession average of 100, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB’s) latest index. On the positive front, owners did find a reason to be more positive about their own sales (a huge 7 point jump in positive expectations) and plan more hiring, with the strongest job creation plans since 2007. However, owners continue to find inventories “too high” and sales and earnings trends continued to deteriorate for more owners. Overall, the Index is still just treading water.

also:

Capital Outlays. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months fell 2 points to 24 percent. Eight percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (down 2 points).  Of those who said it was a bad time to expand (59 percent), 27 percent still blamed the political environment, suggesting that at least for these owners, Washington is preventing their spending on expansion.  The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months was a net negative 11 percent, unchanged from December.  Not seasonally adjusted, 19 percent expected an improvement in business conditions (up 2 points), and 23 percent expect deterioration (down 4 points).  A net 15 percent of all owners expect improved real sales volumes, up a huge 7 points, a favorable sign.  Overall, it looks like “maintenance mode”, no breakout in spending on the horizon based on these expectations with the exception of expected real sales.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the February 11 Doug Short post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  A Fractional Improvement, but ‘Losing Steam’“ :

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the full February 2014 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of February 11, 2014, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  February 2014”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The December NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, December 10.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Sees Slight Bump in November.”  The subtitle is “Few Positive Signs for the Future.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .9 points in November to 92.5.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

•    Sales. The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months was unchanged at a negative 8 percent.  Fifteen percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 1 point to 3 percent of all owners after falling 6 points in October (seasonally adjusted), a weak showing. Not much help for hiring or inventory investment in those numbers.

•    Earnings and Wages. Earnings trends deteriorated a bit in November, falling to a net negative 24 percent.   If these were publically traded companies, the stock indices would not look good.  The economy remains bifurcated, large firms doing fairly well, small businesses showing little growth or improvement.

also:

•    Credit Markets. Credit continues to be a non-issue for small employers with just 4 percent of the owners reporting that all their credit needs were not met, down 2 points.  Thirty-two percent reported all credit needs met, and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan.  Twenty-nine percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 1 point but a near-record low.  The average rate paid on short maturity loans was steady at 5.4 percent.

also:

•    Inflation.  Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising selling prices was 2 percent, down 3 points. Seasonally adjusted, a net 19 percent plan price hikes, up 1 point. Not much of this is likely to “stick” if owners are correctly forecasting the future of the economy over the next six months.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in Doug Short’s December 10 post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  ’Optimism Up Slightly’“ :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the December 2013 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of December 11, 2013, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  December 2013”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The October NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 8.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small Businesses Skeptical About Future; Optimism Dips.”  The subtitle is “Too early to measure impact of the ‘shut-down’ but economic outlook is depressed.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased .2 points in September to 93.9.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

Twenty-four (24) percent of owners surveyed in September reported cited regulations and red tape as their No. 1 business problem, 18 percent cited taxes, and 17 percent cited “poor sales”. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem.

also:

Good Time to Expand. In September, only 8 percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand (up 2 points). The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months was a net negative 10 percent, 8 points worse than August’s reading.

also:

Inflation. Fourteen (14) percent of the NFIB owners surveyed reported reducing their average selling prices in the past three months (down 2 points), and 14 percent reported price increases (down 3 points). The net percent of owners raising average selling prices was 1 percent, down 1 point. As for prospective price increases, 21 percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months (up 1 point), and 2 percent plan reductions (down 1 point). A net 19 percent plan price hikes, up 1 point.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in Doug Short’s October 8 post titled “Small Business Sentiment ‘Basically Unchanged’” :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the October 2013 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of October 8, 2013, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  October 2013”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 13.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small-Business Optimism? Not So Much.”  The subtitle is “July Index Increases Marginally.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .6 points in July to 94.1.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

Sales. The net percent of all owners* reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months compared to the prior three months improved a point, rising to a negative 7 percent. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 2 points, to 7 percent of all owners. These expectations remain depressed and are not the kind that will generate a lot of new employment or new orders for inventories.

also:

Credit Markets. Credit continues to be a non-issue for small employers, five percent of whom say that all their credit needs were not met in July, unchanged from June and May, and the lowest reading since February 2008. Thirty (30) percent of owners surveyed reported all credit needs met, and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan (65 percent including those who did not answer the question, presumably uninterested in borrowing).

also:

Good Time to Expand. In July, 9 percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (up 2 points). The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months was a net negative 6 percent, 2 points worse than June’s reading.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in Doug Short’s August 13 post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  Fractionally Higher In Its Historically Weak Trend” :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the August 2013 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of August 13, 2013, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  August 2013”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The June NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, June 11.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small-Business Confidence Edges Up, Reaches May 2012 Level.”  The subtitle is “Not Much Progress For a Recovery.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 2.3 points in May to 94.4.

Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with) :

While May’s reading is the second highest since the recession started December 2007, the Index does not signal strong economic growth for the sector.

also:

Owners were asked to identify their top business problem: 24 percent cited taxes, 23 percent cited regulations and red tape, 16 percent cited weak sales and 2 percent reported financing/access to credit.

also:

Sales. The net percent of all owners* reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months compared to the prior three months was unchanged at a negative 4 percent. While this is the best reading in nearly a year, there are still more firms reporting declines than gains. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 4 points to 8 percent of all owners. Sales expectations are trending better, but are still historically weak.

also:

Credit Markets. Credit continues to be a non-issue for small employers, only 5  percent of whom say that all their credit needs were not met in May. This is down 1 point from April and the lowest reading since February 2008. Twenty-eight (28) percent of owners surveyed reported that all their credit needs were met last month, and 53 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan (67 percent including those who did not answer the question, presumably uninterested in borrowing as well).

also:

 Inflation. The net percent of owners raising selling prices in May was 2 percent, down 1 point from April. Sixteen (16) percent of NFIB owners reported reducing their average selling prices in the past three months, and increase of 1 point, and 19 percent of owners surveyed reported price increases (down 1 point). As for prospective price increases, 17 percent of small employers plan to raise average prices in the next few months (down 4 points), and 3 percent plan price reductions. Seasonally adjusted, a net 15 percent plan price hikes, down 3 points.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in Doug Short’s June 11 post titled “Small Business Sentiment:  Highest Level Since May 2012” :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

–

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the Small Business Economic Trends document as well as the June 2013 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report (pdf).

_____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of June 12, 2013, titled “NFIB Small Business Optimism –  June 2013”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.