The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of September 20, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a variety of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.

The CFNAI MA-3:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of September 20, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of July 11, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a variety of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.

The CFNAI MA-3:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of July 11, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of May 21, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a couple of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.

The CFNAI MA-3:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of May 22, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

One subject that is a major issue – and one that many believe is “holding back the economy” – is that of “uncertainty.”  This is a substantial concern to businesses, both large and small, as seen in recent business surveys including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey as well as the Deloitte “CFO Signals” Survey.

While this “uncertainty” seems to comprised of many factors, those prominent include government spending and budget issues; regulations; government requirements; and foreign and monetary policy.  Needless to say, the topics are wide-ranging and (potentially) complex.

While I don’t believe, as many do, that this “uncertainty” is the key issue that is constraining economic growth, I nonetheless believe it is a critical issue, especially to businesses.

An April 29 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, “Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Recovery,” by Bill McNabb, focuses on the topic.

A couple of notable excerpts include:

Quite simply, if firms can’t see a clear road to economic recovery ahead, they’re not going to hire and they’re not going to spend. It’s what economists call a “deadweight loss”—loss caused by inefficiency.

also:

Three economists, Stanford University’s Nicholas Bloom and Scott Baker and the University of Chicago’s Steven Davis, have done invaluable work measuring the level of policy uncertainty over the past few decades. Their research (available at policyuncertainty.com) shows that, on average, U.S. economic policy uncertainty has been 50% higher in the past two years than it has been since 1985.

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of May 14, 2013, titled “Uncertainty And Its Impact On The Economy”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his most recent update of “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a couple of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.

The CFNAI MA-3:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of April 23, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The growth and associated dynamics of China’s economy has vast importance on many levels, including those for large multinational companies.

Today, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled “China GDP Growth Slows to 7.7%.”  Three notable excerpts include:

China’s economic growth slowed unexpectedly in the first quarter, raising concerns that a recovery that started in the second half of last year is already losing steam.

also:

“The slowdown in the first quarter is very remarkable,” said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan. “The weakness is quite broad-based on the domestic front.”

also:

“We saw very fast growth in credit [in March] but the money isn’t going into the real economy,” Mr. Zhu said. “That’s what we’re worried about. We see fast credit growth but the money stays out of the real economy. That will trigger concerns on financial stability.”

Another article, in the April 15 Wall Street “China Realtime Report“, contains a variety of charts depicting economic measures, including (but not limited to) trends in loans, electricity consumption, railway freight, industrial output, and real retail sales.

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Recently Deloitte released their third biennial cost survey.  The survey is conducted among Fortune 1000 companies.

While the entire report is noteworthy, a couple of notable excerpts include the following:

Businesses today are just as committed to cost reduction as they were in the depths of the global recession. The main difference now is that many are focused on cost-cutting as a way to drive growth, rather than as a way to survive or avoid insolvency.

also:

…according to the survey, the likelihood of cost reduction over the next 24 months is even higher for companies with rising sales (78 percent) than it is for companies with sales that are flat or down (70 percent).

The report also lists the top three reasons for cost management and shows various dynamics of cost reduction programs, such as why cost reduction efforts fall short.

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of March 22, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a couple of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.

The CFNAI MA-3:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of March 22, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher made comments with regard to economic conditions and business activity.

An excerpt, as seen in the December 18 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics post of December 18, titled “Fed’s Fisher:  U.S. Companies Not Able to Perform” :

The central banker did not address the monetary policy outlook, but he did say that when it comes to Federal Reserve bond buying “quantitative easing is a necessary but insufficient tool to spark job creation.” He added, “employers will not deploy the cheap and abundant capital on hand toward job creation while there is so much uncertainty surrounding final demand for the goods and services they sell.”

_____

StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

Today’s Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Consumer Spending Wobbles” in which the trends in consumer spending as well as other major categories of economic activity are discussed.

An excerpt includes:

American consumers helped carry the economy through a spring slowdown and appeared to power a summer resurgence in growth. But in recent weeks government data have shown spending was slower over the summer than previously believed, and it has started off the final three months of the year on an even weaker footing.

Now a range of factors, from high unemployment to the prospect of increased taxes due to the approaching “fiscal cliff,” are threatening to sap consumers’ spending power at a time when other sectors of the economy likely are too weak to pick up the slack.

_____

StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.