Category Archives: Uncategorized

Economic Indicators And Beginnings Of Past Recessions

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are flagging from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of November 26, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3 month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a couple of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods.

The CFNAI MA-3:

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of November 28, 2012, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

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StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

O.E.C.D. Forecast

The New York Times published an article on November 27 titled “O.E.C.D., Slashing Growth Outlook, Warns of Global Recession.”

A couple of notable excerpts include:

The organization, based in Paris, predicted that gross domestic product in its 34 member countries, all of which have developed economies, would expand 1.4 percent in 2013, significantly below the forecast of 2.2 percent it made just six months ago.

also:

The group expects the United States economy to grow 2 percent in 2013 and 2.8 percent in 2014, provided a fiscal deal is reached. In Japan, G.D.P. is expected to expand 0.7 percent in 2013 and 0.8 percent in 2014.

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StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.

R&D Spending At Apple, IBM and H-P

The Wall Street Journal today published an article titled “H-P Wants Its Edge Back.”  An excerpt with regard to R&D spending is notable:

H-P’s R&D spending has been limited among its tech industry peers. Between 2003 and 2010, H-P cut its R&D budget from $3.7 billion to $3 billion, even as revenue rose from $73 billion to $126 billion. In 2011, H-P spent 2.6% of revenue on R&D, while rival International Business Machines Corp. IBM +0.87% spent 5.8%.

By comparison, Apple spends just 2% of its revenue on R&D, according to Technology Review.

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StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.