Economic Indicators And Beginnings Of Past Recessions

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site.

The current levels of each are notable, as they are vacillating from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink.

Doug Short, in his blog post of March 22, titled “The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index” displays both the CFNAI MA-3 (3-month Moving Average) and ADS Index (91-Day Moving Average) from a couple of perspectives.

Of particular note, two of the charts, shown below, denote where the current levels of each reading is relative to the beginning of past recessionary periods, as depicted by the red dots.


(click on charts to enlarge images)

Dshort 3-22-13 Chicago-Fed-CFNAI-recession-indicator

The ADS Index, 91-Day MA:

Dshort 3-22-13 - ADS-index-91-day


Please Note – The above is excerpted from the (published by StratX, LLC) post of March 22, 2013, titled “Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity


StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.


StratX, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.