The March 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The March 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 15, 2018.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See Steeper Fed Rate Path, Stronger Inflation.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, well above the postrecession annual average of 1.9%.

Economists in the latest survey saw annual inflation rising to 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and remaining relatively stable thereafter.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 13.66%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 13.97%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted March 9 – March 13, 2018.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 4.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.23%

December 2019: 3.47%

December 2020: 3.58%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 15, 2018, titled “The March 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.