The November 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The November 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 9, 2017.  The headline is “Forecasters Predict Nafta Withdrawal Would Slow U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Forecasters this month saw GDP growth of 2.5% this year and again in 2018. The pace of expansion was then seen easing to 2.1% in 2019 and 2% in 2020, closer to the average since the 2007-09 recession ended. Last month, economists said the proposed GOP tax plan would produce several years of stronger growth if enacted by Congress, though forecasters were divided over its likely long-term effects.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.64%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 15.85%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted November 3-7.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.5%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

full-year 2020:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.1%

December 2018: 3.9%

December 2019: 4.0%

December 2020: 4.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.47%

December 2018: 3.00%

December 2019: 3.31%

December 2020: 3.47%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 9, 2017, titled “The November 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.