The April 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The April 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 14, 2024. The headline is “’Envy of the World’ – U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

The U.S. economy has far outperformed expectations over the past year and a half. Instead of stumbling under the weight of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest-rate-raising campaign in four decades, it has continued expanding at a robust clip. 

Few think that the economy can do quite as well as last year’s 3.1% growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter change from a year earlier. That figure might have been boosted by one-time factors such as federal infrastructure and semiconductor legislation and an uptick in immigration, which also might not last.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 29%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 39%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted April 5 – April 9. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2024:  1.72%

full-year 2025:  1.90%

full-year 2026:  2.01%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.11%

December 2025: 4.17%

December 2026: 4.03%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 3.97%

December 2025: 3.78%

December 2026: 3.78%

____

Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 14, 2024, titled “The April 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.