The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 18, 2019.  The headline is “U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Three excerpts:

The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.

also:

On average, they expect U.S. economic growth to slow slightly in 2020, to a year-over-year rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter from an estimated 2.2% in 2019. They also see lower odds of a recession over the next year than they did in the prior two months.

also:

Just over a third of economists expect the next recession will come in 2021. One-fifth expect it in 2020, and 22.9% expect it to come in 2022.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.85%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 5% to 65%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 30.19%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted December 12 – December 16, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.24%

full-year 2020:  1.78%

full-year 2021:  1.88%

full-year 2022:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.53%

December 2020: 3.68%

December 2021: 3.84%

December 2022: 3.98%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.84%

December 2020: 2.01%

December 2021: 2.28%

December 2022: 2.54%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 18, 2019, titled “The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.