The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economy’s bounceback will depend on how quickly vaccines are distributed, according to forecasters. More than half of those surveyed said a speedy deployment of vaccines, once approved in the U.S., represents the biggest potential boost for the economy over the next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 23.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 26.63%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted December 4 – December 8. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2020:  -2.74%

full-year 2021:  3.69%

full-year 2022:  2.93%

full-year 2023:  2.38%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2020: 6.71%

December 2021: 5.59%

December 2022: 4.84%

December 2023: 4.40%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2020: .90%

December 2021: 1.28%

December 2022: 1.62%

December 2023: 1.99%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of December 11, 2020, titled “The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.