The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2021. The headline is “Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Economists on average expected gross domestic product to expand nearly 4.9% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year, according to the business and academic economists surveyed in February, an improvement from their 4.3% forecast in January. They cited the distribution of Covid-19 vaccinations and the prospect of additional fiscal relief from Washington for the brightening outlook.
“The economy is already picking up some growth momentum in the first quarter,” said Brian Bethune, professor of economics at Boston College. “The large $1.9 trillion stimulus package will provide significant insurance against a relapse into recession,” he said, referring to President Biden’s proposal.
More than half of the respondents said the amount of fiscal aid the economy needs to recover from the coronavirus shock was less than $1 trillion, while only one said that more than $2 trillion was required.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 17.51%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 79%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 21.2%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 62 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted February 5 – February 9. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2021: 4.87%
full-year 2022: 3.07%
full-year 2023: 2.46%
December 2021: 5.28%
December 2022: 4.46%
December 2023: 4.10%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2021: 1.48%
December 2022: 1.85%
December 2023: 2.18%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of February 12, 2021, titled “The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.