The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2024. The headline is “It Won’t Be a Recession – It Will Just Feel Like One.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Still, economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 39%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 80%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 48%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 5 – January 9. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  2.65%

full-year 2024:  1.01%

full-year 2025:  1.99%

full-year 2026:  2.01%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.30%

December 2025: 4.13%

December 2026: 3.99%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 3.79%

December 2025: 3.68%

December 2026: 3.65%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of January 14, 2024, titled “The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.