The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2019. The headline is “President Trump’s Criticism of the Fed Hasn’t Shifted Perception of Its Independence, Economists Say.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Economists said they expected the Fed’s policy rate would average 1.99% at the end of the year, suggesting forecasters were largely split between those who saw the Fed cutting rates once this year and those who saw two rate cuts.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.10%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 2% to 60%. For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 30.07%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 53 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted July 5 – July 9, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2019: 2.2%
full-year 2020: 1.75%
full-year 2021: 1.84%
December 2019: 3.61%
December 2020: 3.84%
December 2021: 4.06%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.18%
December 2020: 2.38%
December 2021: 2.58%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 16, 2019, titled “The July 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.