The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2021. The headline is “Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.56%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the last survey published] was 12.53%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 64 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  6.89%

full-year 2022:  3.24%

full-year 2023:  2.30%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.89%

December 2022: 4.12%

December 2023: 3.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.79%

December 2022: 2.11%

December 2023: 2.41%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of July 11, 2021, titled “The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.