The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 13, 2019.  The headline is “Trump Tariffs Are Short-Term Pain Without Long-Term Gain, Economists Say.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Looking at the economy as a whole, 74% of economists said they saw the risks for growth tilted to the downside—up from 58% in May and 47% this time a year ago.

Nearly half of economists in the latest survey, 48.8%, expect the next recession in 2020. That was up from just over a third in the May survey. Some 36.6% predict the next downturn will start in 2021, down from just over half in last month’s survey. Just under 5% expect it will begin this year, up from just over 2% in May.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 30.07%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 22.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 7 – June 11, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.6%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 2.34%

December 2020: 2.48%

December 2021: 2.60%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 13, 2019, titled “The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.