The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Business and academic economists in the survey now expect, on average, gross domestic product to contract 0.1% at an annual rate in the second quarter. That is a large downgrade from February, when they still expected GDP growth of 1.9% from April to June.
The monthly survey of economists found 75% of economists expect the coronavirus spread to be a “significant drag” on full-year economic growth in 2020, shaving more than 0.5 percentage point from growth as measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 48.8%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 20% to 100%. For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 25.6%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 55 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted March 6 – March 10, 2020.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: 1.16%
full-year 2021: 2.09%
full-year 2022: 2.03%
December 2020: 3.90%
December 2021: 3.91%
December 2022: 3.93%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: 1.19%
December 2021: 1.68%
December 2022: 2.04%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 12, 2020, titled “The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
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