The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2021. The headline is “Latest Stimulus Package Could Jolt U.S. Growth, Revive Inflation in 2021.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The nearly $1.9 trillion relief package heading for House passage Wednesday is projected to help propel the U.S. economy to its fastest annual growth in nearly four decades, reduce poverty and revive inflation.
The legislation—following trillions of dollars in federal aid last year and arriving amid rising Covid-19 vaccination rates—prompted economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in recent days to boost their average forecast for 2021 economic growth to 5.95%, measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the same period this year. That was up from their 4.87% projection last month and would be the U.S. economy’s fastest since a 7.9% burst in 1983.
The analysts also lifted their forecasts for inflation and job growth from last month’s survey. The new poll found that they expected consumer prices would rise 2.48% by December from a year earlier and projected that employers will add an average 514,000 jobs a month over the next four quarters.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 11.62%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 40%. For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 17.51%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2021: 5.95%
full-year 2022: 3.17%
full-year 2023: 2.44%
December 2021: 4.97%
December 2022: 4.27%
December 2023: 3.97%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2021: 1.78%
December 2022: 2.15%
December 2023: 2.43%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of March 10, 2021, titled “The March 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.