The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 9, 2019. The headline is “Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year, WSJ Survey Says.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Just over a third of economists, 35.7%, expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 52.4% expect it will start in 2021. That marked a shift from the prior two surveys, when nearly half of respondents expected the next recession to start in 2020. In April, 40% predicted the next downturn will start in 2021, while in March about a third forecast a downturn to begin in 2021.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 25.80%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted May 3 – May 7, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2019: 2.3%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.8%
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.8%
December 2021: 4.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 2.75%
December 2020: 2.80%
December 2021: 2.82%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 9, 2019, titled “The May 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.