The November 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 11, 2018. The headline is “Economists Split on Whether Outcome of Midterms Will Increase or Decrease Uncertainty.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Half of economists expected the next recession to start in 2020—the year of the next presidential election—and just over 70% of respondents said that there was a greater risk that economic growth would undershoot their forecasts over the next 12 months than overshoot.
One point economists appeared to agree on is they expected the labor market to remain strong.
They estimated employers need to add just over 127,000 jobs a month over the next 12 months for the U.S. economy absorb new workers into the labor force and hold the unemployment rate steady.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.55%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 17.64%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 58 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted November 9 – November 13, 2018.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2018: 3.1%
full-year 2019: 2.3%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.8%
December 2018: 3.6%
December 2019: 3.5%
December 2020: 3.6%
December 2021: 3.9%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2018: 3.23%
December 2019: 3.53%
December 2020: 3.45%
December 2021: 3.47%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 15, 2018, titled “The November 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.