The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Forecasters see an unemployment rate of 6.7% at the end of this year, down from 7.8% in last month’s survey. They now expect gross domestic product to contract 2.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of 2019, an improvement from the 3.6% contraction they predicted last month. They forecast expansions of 3.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, only slightly slower than in the prior month’s survey.
Nearly 90% expect uncertainty to decrease for financial markets thanks to clarity about the election outcome and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine. Over 80% of respondents expect uncertainty to decrease for the economy in coming months.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26.63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 31.68%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted November 6 – November 10. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: -2.66%
full-year 2021: 3.58%
full-year 2022: 2.88%
full-year 2023: 2.43%
December 2020: 6.74%
December 2021: 5.59%
December 2022: 4.80%
December 2023: 4.37%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: .88%
December 2021: 1.22%
December 2022: 1.63%
December 2023: 1.97%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of November 12, 2020, titled “The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.