The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 17, 2021. The headline is “Supply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Uncomfortably high inflation will grip the U.S. economy well into 2022, as constrained supply chains keep upward pressure on prices and, increasingly, curb output, according to economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal.

The economists’ inflation projections are up dramatically from July, while short-term growth outlooks are lower.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 15.94%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the last survey published] was 11.56%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 67 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 8 – October 12. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2021:  5.22%

full-year 2022:  3.59%

full-year 2023:  2.53%

full-year 2024:  2.23%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2021: 4.63%

December 2022: 3.91%

December 2023: 3.64%

December 2024: 3.66%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2021: 1.69%

December 2022: 2.15%

December 2023: 2.45%

December 2024: 2.66%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 19, 2021, titled “The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.