The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
Forecasters have ratcheted up their expectations for a recession because they increasingly doubt the Fed can keep raising rates to cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. Some 58.9% of economists said they think the Fed will raise interest rates too much and cause unnecessary economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.
Economists’ average forecasts suggest that they expect a recession to be relatively short-lived. Of the economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year, their average expectation for the length of a recession was eight months. The average postwar recession lasted 10.2 months.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 63%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 100%. For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 49%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted October 7 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2022: .22%
full-year 2023: .44%
full-year 2024: 1.82%
full-year 2025: 2.12%
December 2022: 3.70%
December 2023: 4.71%
December 2024: 4.64%
December 2025: 4.31%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2022: 3.84%
December 2023: 3.45%
December 2024: 3.19%
December 2025: 3.20%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 16, 2022, titled “The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.