The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 15, 2023. The headline is “A Recession Is No Longer The Consensus.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 48%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 98%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 54%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 65 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 6 – October 11. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2023:  2.18%

full-year 2024:  .98%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

full-year 2026:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2023: 3.90%

December 2024: 4.41%

December 2025: 4.17%

December 2026: 4.02%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2023: 4.47%

December 2024: 3.94%

December 2025: 3.81%

December 2026: 3.72%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 15, 2023, titled “The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.