The September 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 13, 2018. The headline is “Most Economists See Tariff Effects on U.S. Economy As Limited.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Around two-thirds of respondents commented that trade or tariffs were the biggest risks to their economic growth forecasts in the next 12 months.
Back in the January survey, half of economists said the tax cuts signed into law by Mr. Trump in December would boost the economy’s long-run trend at least modestly, while the other half said it would have no effect or leave growth somewhat below its current trajectory.
Nine months later, 35.2% said they would boost the long-run growth outlook modestly, while 44.4% expected the tax cuts would have “little impact” on the long-run growth outlook and 11.1% said the tax cuts would hamper the long-run outlook.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 17.73%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 45%. For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 18.3%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted September 7 – September 11, 2018.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2018: 3.1%
full-year 2019: 2.4%
full-year 2020: 1.8%
full-year 2021: 1.9%
December 2018: 3.7%
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.9%
December 2021: 4.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2018: 3.13%
December 2019: 3.42%
December 2020: 3.41%
December 2021: 3.44%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 13, 2018, titled “The September 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.