The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey – Notable Aspects

The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 12, 2019.  The headline is “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The Trump administration’s goal of achieving economic growth of 3% or better is looking increasingly remote this year, according to forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Private-sector economists surveyed in recent days expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand an inflation-adjusted 2.2% this year on average, measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Forecasters expect economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2020 and will be 1.9% in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 67%.  For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 33.57%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted September 6 – September 10, 2019.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2019:  2.20%

full-year 2020:  1.68%

full-year 2021:  1.85%

full-year 2022:  1.99%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.67%

December 2020: 3.87%

December 2021: 4.09%

December 2022: 4.13%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 1.69%

December 2020: 1.97%

December 2021: 2.24%

December 2022: 2.41%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 13, 2019, titled “The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.