Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey May 2014 – Notable Aspects

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 8, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See Growth Rebound.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

One excerpt I found notable:

The majority of economists think there is a greater likelihood that growth will be higher than they expect. But that share, 71.8%, is smaller than the 75% reading a month ago.

And not all of the lost winter activity will be made up. On average, the economists in the survey scaled back their forecasts for total-2014 growth. They now think real GDP will grow 2.4% this year, down from the 2.7% forecast in April’s survey.

One reason for the reduced outlook is a downshift in housing expectations. On average, the economists project housing starts will total 1.05 million for all of 2014, down from 1.08 million forecast in April and 1.11 million expected at the start of 2014.

As seen in the “Economist Q&A” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was seen to be roughly equal to that of April’s average response of approximately 12%.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2014:  2.4%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 6.1%

December 2015: 5.6%

December 2016: 5.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.28%

December 2015: 3.85%

December 2016: 4.22%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of May 9, 2014, titled “The May 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.