The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 9, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Think Fed Will Wait Until September to Raise Rates.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
“If you look at the broad set of data that we’ve gotten in recent months, data has very much surprised to the downside,” New York Fed President William Dudley said Wednesday. “It’d be reasonable to think that the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike might be a little further off in time. I can imagine a situation where a June rate hike could still be in play…but obviously it’s a bigger hurdle because we’ve had a lot of weak data. Now you have to see sufficient data on the other side. Now the bar is a little higher.”
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.23%; March’s average response was 10.76%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.7%
full-year 2016: 2.7%
full-year 2017: 2.6%
December 2015: 5.1%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.56%
December 2016: 3.29%
December 2017: 3.75%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of April 13, 2015, titled “The April 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.