Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey April 2017 – Notable Aspects

The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 13, 2017.  The headline is “Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

A growing number of forecasters are beginning to reconsider their bullish outlook for the U.S. economy as doubts grow over the extent to which President Donald Trump will be able to implement his agenda.

also:

Growth forecasts for the first quarter have come down. In December, the average forecast called for 2.3% growth in the first quarter. That had fallen to 1.9% in March and dipped again to 1.4% in this month’s survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 38%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 14.41%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 61 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on April 7, 2017 to April 11, 2017.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.4%

December 2018: 4.3%

December 2019: 4.5%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.84%

December 2018: 3.32%

December 2019: 3.65%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of April 13, 2017, titled “The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.