The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 7, 2014. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3%.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
According to this month’s survey of 43 economists—not all of whom answered every question—real gross domestic product is pegged to grow at an annual rate just shy of 3% in the third and fourth quarters. That would put GDP growth over the full year 2014 at 2%, not much different from the economy’s overall weak performance so far in this recovery.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 12.1%; July’s average response was 12.13%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.0%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
full-year 2016: 2.9%
December 2014: 5.9%
December 2015: 5.5%
December 2016: 5.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 3.04%
December 2015: 3.72%
December 2016: 4.18%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of August 8, 2014, titled “The August 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.