The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2013. The headline is “Economists Split on Start of Fed Pullback.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 12%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2013: 2.1%
full-year 2014: 2.7%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
December 2013: 7.1%
December 2014: 6.5%
December 2015: 6.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.86%
December 2014: 3.47%
December 2015: 3.91%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of December 14, 2013, titled “The December 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.