The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 10, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Are Convinced Fed Will Raise Rates in December.” As indicated in the article, 65 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Since their policy meeting in late October, Fed officials have sent strong signals they might begin to raise the fed-funds rate in December after holding it near zero for seven years. Chairwoman Janet Yellen last week told lawmakers the U.S. economy “is doing well and that is the reason that it is a live option for us in our December meeting to discuss…whether or not it’s appropriate to raise rates.” A solid jobs report for November appeared to clear the way for such a move.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.0%; the average response in November’s survey was 13.56%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.4%
full-year 2017: 2.3%
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.33%
December 2016: 2.86%
December 2017: 3.35%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of December 10, 2015, titled “The December 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.