The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2014. The headline is “Old Man Winter Taking a Toll, for Now, Economists Say.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
One excerpt I found notable:
If their forecasts miss reality, more economists think it’s because they are being too cautious rather than too optimistic about growth in 2014. On average, they give a 38% probability that real GDP will grow faster than 3%, while the odds for recession are only 12%.
Stronger demand and a tighter labor market will allow pricing power to gain some traction. Economists think consumer prices will increase by 2% across of 2014, putting the inflation rate right at the Federal Reserve’s target.
Lower unemployment and inflation at goal will allow the Fed to maintain its pace of paring bond purchases by $10 billion per meeting, say the economists.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2013: 2.6%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
full-year 2016: 2.9%
December 2014: 6.2%
December 2015: 5.8%
December 2016: 5.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 3.48%
December 2015: 4.00%
December 2016: 4.34%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of February 14, 2014, titled “The February 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.