The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 12, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing On Capital Investment.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Despite the weakness in capital spending, forecasters are optimistic about the overall U.S. economy. The average forecast says inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will grow 2.9% over the course of 2015. That would be faster than the 2.5% gain in 2014 and the second-best annual performance since the recession ended.
Supporting the outlook are expectations that oil prices will rise only slowly this year, and solid job growth will lead to bigger pay raises.
What could derail the economy in 2015? As was the case through most of 2014, the majority of economists still cite international events as the biggest potential nightmares.
Slower global growth was the top potential danger, but other foreign risks included financial-market fallout if Greece exits the eurozone and an escalation of Ukraine-Russia tensions.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.11%; January’s average response was 11.54%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.9%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
full-year 2017: 2.6%
December 2015: 5.2%
December 2016: 4.9%
December 2017: 4.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.71%
December 2016: 3.46%
December 2017: 3.84%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of February 12, 2015, titled “The February 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.