Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey January 2014 – Notable Aspects

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: End Emergency Jobless Benefits, Don’t Raise Minimum Wage.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

One excerpt I found notable:

On average, real gross domestic product is forecast to grow 2.8% this year, after an estimated 2.6% gain in 2013, with the expansion accelerating over the course of the year. The GDP forecasts are only slightly above the quarterly patterns projected when the survey was last done in each of the past four months. But nearly three-quarters of forecasters think that if the economy surprises this year, it will be by growing faster than they forecast rather than disappoint as it has in previous years. Meanwhile, forecasters put better odds—43%—on breakout growth over the next 12 months than on recession, which they give just an 11% chance of happening.

Another aspect I found notable is in the spreadsheet detail, where there is a question titled “Grading Bernanke.”  The question asks “On a scale of 0-100 how would you grade Ben Bernanke’s tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve?”   Responses and comments are presented.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2013:  2.5%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 6.3%

December 2015: 5.8%

December 2016: 5.5%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.52%

December 2015: 4.01%

December 2016: 4.41%

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Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of January 17, 2014, titled “The January 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”

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StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.

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StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.