The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See 2015 GDP Growth at 3%.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The roster of 66 economists—not all of whom answered every question—is on average slightly more upbeat about the 2015 economy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is forecast to grow 3% across the four quarters of 2015, better than the 2.6% rate estimated for 2014. Wages are expected to pick up as the labor market tightens.
Cheaper oil also means that inflation—as measured by the consumer-price index—will turn into deflation temporarily, many economists say. The average of the forecasts sees the CPI up only 0.5% in the 12 months ended in June, and one-quarter of respondents expects the percentage change to be negative, with the headline CPI declining as much as 1%.
Deflation will be short-lived, however, as oil prices head north and other prices in the core index—which excludes food and energy—continue to increase, said Tom Porcelli of RBC Capital Markets.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.54%; December’s average response was 11.45%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.6%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
full-year 2017: 2.7%
December 2015: 5.2%
December 2016: 4.9%
December 2017: 4.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.87%
December 2016: 3.55%
December 2017: 4.00%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of January 16, 2015, titled “The January 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.