The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 16, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Fed Will Raise Rates in September.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The Fed has kept its benchmark federal-funds rate pinned near zero since December 2008 and hasn’t raised rates since June 2006. Ms. Yellen has said repeatedly the Fed is on track to raise rates this year as the U.S. economy heals from the 2007-09 recession.
“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal-funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy,” Ms. Yellen told lawmakers Wednesday.
Even so, 71% of economists in the July survey said the greater risk was that the Fed would raise interest rates too late, versus 29% who said the greater risk was the central bank would move too soon. That breakdown was little changed from June’s survey.
The latest Journal survey was conducted Friday through Tuesday; 60 business and academic economists offered predictions for the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 10.02%; the average response in June was 10.33%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.7%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
December 2015: 5.1%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.72%
December 2016: 3.35%
December 2017: 3.72%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of July 17, 2015, titled “The July 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.