The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 17, 2013. The headline is “Economists Wary as Fed’s Next Forecast Looms.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
Notable excerpts from the article include:
In every year of the economic recovery the Federal Reserve has overestimated how fast the economy would grow. Many economists believe it is doing so again.
In normal times, achieving 2.6% growth wouldn’t be much cause for celebration. But these aren’t normal times and that rate already at midyear looks like a high hurdle. Second-quarter growth appears soft. Economists surveyed by the Journal estimate the economy is growing at a 1.9% annualized rate in the current quarter, after a 2.4% rate in the first quarter. If they’re right, that would mean growth would have to accelerate in the second half of the year—amid continued drag from federal government spending cuts and tax increases—to meet the Fed’s not-so-lofty expectations.
As well, as to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 15%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2013: 2.3%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
December 2013: 7.3%
December 2014: 6.7%
December 2015: 6.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.36%
December 2014: 2.97%
December 2015: 3.61%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of June 17, 2013, titled “The June 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
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