The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2015. The headline is “Economists See Bright Consumer Outlook.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
But the forecasters think a high level of spending will be sustained this year because labor markets are strengthening. According to the average forecast, payrolls should increase at a monthly pace of 221,000 for the rest of the year, a notch above the 217,000 averaged in the first five months. The jobless rate is projected to fall to 5.1% by December from 5.5% in May.
A return of the consumer would power overall economic output. On average, the forecasters think inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is expanding at a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter and then will grow just over 3% in the second half. The economy contracted 0.7% in the first quarter according to the most recent estimate, a drop that reflected shipping problems related to the West coast port slowdown and harsh weather.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 10.33%; the average response in May was 11.62%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.1%
full-year 2016: 2.7%
full-year 2017: 2.6%
December 2015: 5.1%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.63%
December 2016: 3.34%
December 2017: 3.76%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of June 12, 2015, titled “The June 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.