The June 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 9, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Sharply Lower Estimates of Job Growth in the Next Year.” As indicated in the article, 66 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
A big risk for the U.S. is that there’s simply “no offsetting factor to the energy and manufacturing slowdown,” said Nathaniel Karp, chief U.S. economist for the bank BBVA. The U.S. energy boom, in particular, had been a bright spot in the U.S. economy until oil prices plunged and remained low in 2014 and 2015.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.74%; the average response in May’s survey was 19.61%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 60%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 2.0%
full-year 2017: 2.3%
full-year 2018: 2.2%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 2.19%
December 2017: 2.69%
December 2018: 3.15%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of June 13, 2016, titled “The June 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
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