The May 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 11, 2017. The headline is “Economists Say President Donald Trump’s Agenda Would Boost Growth – a Little.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Early on, White House officials have reportedly considered penciling in growth rates as high as 3.2% a year. But the respondents to the Journal’s survey—a mix of academic, financial and business economists who regularly produce professional forecasts—say numbers so high will be hard to attain, because the policies under consideration just might not pack that punch.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.27%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 15.79%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey occurred on May 5, 2017 to May 9, 2017.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.5%
full-year 2019: 2.1%
December 2017: 4.4%
December 2018: 4.2%
December 2019: 4.4%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.79%
December 2018: 3.29%
December 2019: 3.59%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of May 11, 2017, titled “The May 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.