Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey November 2013 – Notable Aspects

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 7, 2013.  The headline is “Fed Won’t Taper Until Next Year, Most Economists Agree.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

Here is one excerpt I found notable:

Most of the respondents see current Fed policy as too easy and fiscal policy as too constraining.

On Fed policy, more than half —23 of 41 respondents — said it was “too loose.” Just 17 said it was “just right” and one said it was “too tight.”

Meanwhile, federal tax and spending policies are “too tight,” according to more than half—20 of the 38 economists who commented.

As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 13%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2013:  1.9%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.0%

December 2014: 6.6%

December 2015: 6.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.75%

December 2014: 3.43%

December 2015: 3.89%


Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of November 12, 2013, titled “The November 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey


StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.


StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.