The October 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 12, 2012. The headline is “Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year.”
On average, the 48 respondents, not all of whom answer every question, expect the jobless rate will still be at 7.8% in June of next year—matching the September figure released last week. The reason for the stagnation in the job market is expectations for lackluster economic growth during the rest of 2012 and into 2013. Through the first half of next year, the average forecast is for growth in gross domestic product below 2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
To be sure, the economists don’t see the U.S. falling into recession. They put just a 22% chance of another downturn hitting in the next 12 months. In fact, they put better odds—a 28% chance—that the economy will grow above 3% in 2013. But neither of those scenarios is seen as likely, and about two-thirds of the respondents say the risks remain more to the downside than upside.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2012: 1.7%
full-year 2013: 2.3%
full-year 2014: 2.9%
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.6%
December 2014: 7.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 1.83%
December 2013: 2.46%
December 2014: 3.15%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of October 14, 2012, titled “The October 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
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