The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2013. The headline is “Shutdown Likely to Prolong Fed’s Stimulus.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
Here is one excerpt I found notable:
Whenever the government finally reopens, it isn’t clear whether it will be able to produce economic data covering the month of October. Even if it does, the economic volatility from the shutdown will cause reports covering October, November and possibly December to be head-scratchers given the one-time hits over that period.
As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 16%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2013: 2.0%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
December 2013: 7.2%
December 2014: 6.6%
December 2015: 6.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.88%
December 2014: 3.47%
December 2015: 3.94%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of October 15, 2013, titled “The October 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.