Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey October 2014 – Notable Aspects

The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 9, 2014.  The headline is “Conditions Ripe for Stronger Growth, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Faster job growth and stronger consumer confidence are already putting the U.S. expansion on a steady trajectory heading into 2015. Now, falling energy prices are offering another boost, according to The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists.


When it comes to downside risks to the outlook, international affairs remain the dominant fear. A few economists also raised caution flags over the strengthening dollar and a possible widening in the nation’s trade deficit.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.88%; September’s average response was 11.65%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2014:  2.2%

full-year 2015:  2.8%

full-year 2016:  2.7%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 5.8%

December 2015: 5.4%

December 2016: 5.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 2.75%

December 2015: 3.51%

December 2016: 3.93%


Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of October 10, 2014, titled “The October 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”


StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.


StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.