The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2016. The headline is “Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The current expansion began in June 2009, and has now continued for 88 months, making it the fourth-longest period of growth in records stretching to 1854.
The survey of 59 academic, business and financial economists was conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 11.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 55%. For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 20.25%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.8%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.0%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.7%
December 2018: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 1.81%
December 2017: 2.30%
December 2018: 2.69%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of October 13, 2016, titled “The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.