The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Overseas Risks as Growth Wild Card.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
More than 90% of the 48 surveyed economists—not all of whom answered every question—said they expect the U.S. economy to improve relative to the first half of 2014. None see the economic outlook deteriorating. The survey was conducted after last Friday’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report.
The economists see gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, advancing at a 3% annual pace this quarter and next. Just three economists expected growth to exceed 3.7% in the third or fourth quarters, and only two see growth falling below 2%.
The economy expanded at a 4.2% pace in the second quarter after contracting 2.1% in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department.
Forecasters in the Journal survey expect the U.S. economy to grow at a 2.8% annual pace in 2015, down slightly from last month’s forecast of 2.9% annual growth.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.65%; August’s average response was 12.10%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.0%
full-year 2015: 2.8%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
December 2014: 5.9%
December 2015: 5.4%
December 2016: 5.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 2.84%
December 2015: 3.58%
December 2016: 4.00%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of September 12, 2014, titled “The September 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.